Azerbaijani expert: French blackmail, Armenia’s frills obstruct peace process

Azerbaijani political analyst Farhad Mammadov, head of the South Caucasus Research Centre, analysed the anti-Azerbaijani resolution adopted by the French Senate on November 15, the latest antics of the Armenian leadership and the course of the negotiation process in his Telegram channel.

“After the 44-day war, Macron has already used an element of blackmail through the first provocative resolution calling on the French government to condemn Azerbaijan and recognize what is not. This was done to stop the formal collapse of the OSCE Minsk Group. Well, ok, the OSCE Minsk Group remained formally, but actually did not work - Azerbaijan refused to participate in the meeting with the co-chairs at the OSCE Ministerial Council. And after the war in Ukraine, joint work became impossible.

The current resolution of the French Senate is another blackmail and an opportunity for Paris to play at least some role in future processes. However, the lack of resources encourages Macron to go to open provocations. Macron is not Erdogan, it’s even awkward to compare. Therefore, Macron is not capable of going further to raise rates. This resolution also demonstrates that there are no other ways and mechanisms to influence the situation.

Azerbaijan responded with the refusal of the First Vice-President of the post of goodwill of UNESCO. That is, we immediately went trump cards. This is a principle. Demonstrating that the next steps can and should, logically, be on the same level.

Azerbaijan is patiently watching who is willing to do what: France - the resolution of the Senate, Iran conducted exercises, Russia held an unsuccessful summit in Sochi and sent Vardanyan to Karabakh. All interested parties reveal their cards, and time inexorably goes towards the end of the year.

The leadership of Armenia leads itself into a dead end and turns into a space of conflict between patrons - the United States, France, Iran and Russia. Somewhere situationally, these actors act synchronously, and this causes alertness in Azerbaijani society. And this is objective. However, one statement by the President of Azerbaijan at a meeting with Putin in Sochi and a speech in Shusha demonstrates that all these frills and adventures have no effect. The position does not change.

The President of Azerbaijan says and does the same thing both in Russian mediation and in Western mediation. Azerbaijan responds to provocations and strengthens itself on the ground, proposes the principles of a peace treaty, forces negotiations around these principles, and determines the timeframes for decision-making while simultaneously voicing the contours of future steps.

At the same time, it should be understood that Azerbaijan has not yet activated additional pressure mechanisms that everyone is talking about: the checkpoint in Lachin, the continuation of military operations in Karabakh, control over infrastructures in the city of Lachin, territorial claims against Armenia, reparations for the period of occupation, etc. They talk about it, but the choice of actions remains with Baku. Diplomatic work in all these areas has already been carried out, positions have been voiced.

In my opinion, the most likely step may be the transfer of infrastructure in the city of Lachin to Azerbaijani resources, closing the possibility of financing the Armenians of Karabakh from Armenia and the checkpoint in Lachin. Armenia must lose at least some opportunity to be subjective in relation to the Armenians of Karabakh. Note that the high dynamics of processes leads either to decisions or to unilateral actions of Azerbaijan,” Mammadov wrote.