Azerbaijani expert: Iran's move at expense of Armenia's interests South Caucasus trend

Director of the Institute of South Caucasus Studies Farhad Mammadov in his Telegram channel debunks another Armenian myth "about Iran's love" for Armenia.

"Iran's move at the expense of Armenia's interests is a trend of the South Caucasus. Iran has appointed a consul-general in Gafan. Armenian TV channels rejoice: Iran will not allow the borders of the region to be changed, this is a signal to Russia, Türkiye and Azerbaijan, which intend to open the Zangazur corridor.

Let's analyse the case. After the 44-day war, Iran's maps in the region were confused, and this country was left with nothing. The reaction was expressed by military exercises, which were levelled by Baku's proposal to normalise relations and engage in the format '3+3' (3+2), as well as a memorandum on Iran's involvement in the implementation of the Zangazur corridor.

Tehran got the maximum possible - no one else was going to give anything. Azerbaijan has once again paused, directed Iran in a constructive direction and continues to implement its plans. But Khamenei's statement on the borders in the region at meetings with Putin and Erdogan was purely symbolic. According to me, the statement said the following: Baku can do what it wants in Karabakh, but it is not necessary to attack Armenia.

This is the whole essence of Iranian diplomacy and the current realities of the region. They took advantage of the Armenian population of Karabakh and forgot. It was not possible to put pressure on Baku - interests are being realised at the expense of Armenia.

Iranian media, experts, and semi-officials are vying to make statements about supporting Armenia's borders in order to torpedo the opening of the Zangazur corridor through Armenia. Iran, as best it can, is trying to tie the North-South corridor to a greater extent, and the East-West vector to a lesser extent.

On the one hand, it attracts Russian and Azerbaijani investments for the construction of the railway, providing railway exits to Russia and the Black Sea ports of Georgia through Azerbaijan, and on the other hand, it leaves freedom of choice in transportation by road both through Azerbaijan and through Armenia.

In the East-West vector, negotiations are underway to increase flows from Central Asia to Türkiye by road and railway, with parallel torpedoing of alternative communications through the South Caucasus, in particular the Zangazur corridor. And if it does, then preferably through Iranian territory!

Armenia, hostile towards Türkiye and Azerbaijan, is Tehran's last hope to play on contradictions since in a constructive atmosphere Iran cannot compete in the region with either lifestyle, values, economy or technology.

And in this situation, the only country at the expense of whose interests it is possible to realise its goals is Armenia.

Over the past month and a half and the next couple of months, the crystallisation of processes has been taking place and will continue to take place, the trigger of which was the initiation of active actions by Azerbaijan. All actors are making every effort to obtain the maximum possible during the formation of a more or less stable balance in the region.

The announcement of the meetings of the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders in Brussels and Moscow demonstrates that the EU and Russia are not going to withdraw.

The dynamics of the processes are critical for Azerbaijan because it is possible to break any pressure and force external actors to redirect their activity to a weaker Armenia, due to which everyone in the region is already realising their interests. If the Armenian leadership does not pursue constructive relations with Azerbaijan, it will receive proposals from its partners that cannot be refused, or it will fall for the bait of someone's fishing rods, such as the current Iranian proposal," Mammadov wrote.