BBC: Russia plagued by fuel crisis orchestrated by targeted Ukrainian attacks

At least 57 regions across Russia have experienced fuel supply disruptions following a series of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries.

The shortages have primarily affected independent gas stations, according to calculations made by the BBC in their latest investigative report on the ongoing war in Ukraine. The publication considered all reported incidents since August, even if the situation in some areas has since stabilized.

The attacks have impacted one in three oil refineries in Russia, of which there were at least 14 attacks recorded that month, a further 8 in September, and 4 more in the first ten days of October.

Multiple analyses cited in the article indicate that at least ten refineries, including some export-oriented facilities, were partially or completely shut down between August and September. The BBC estimates that since January, Ukrainian drones have targeted 21 out of Russia’s 38 largest refineries, a figure 48% higher than the total number of attacks recorded in 2024.

According to the report, the downtime of Russia’s primary refining capacity reached 23%, marking the highest level in history, and the rate increased even further in September. In October, oil processing volumes fell to 4.86 million barrels per day — nearly 10% lower than in July and the lowest level in five years, according to Bloomberg.

Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, estimates that since the production peak in July, the output of Russian refineries has dropped by about 10%. He noted that if the situation worsens, the Russian authorities have several possible responses — ranging from introducing fuel consumption limits to temporarily relaxing environmental standards for gasoline. However, Vakulenko added that “at the current level of damage, refineries are typically restored within two to three weeks.”

The development of the crisis, he said, depends largely on the scale and frequency of Ukrainian attacks and Kyiv’s production capabilities: “How many drones Ukraine can manufacture, how frequently and in what numbers it can launch them, and whether it will continue to focus on oil refineries or shift to other targets.”

Against the backdrop of declining fuel production and rising gasoline prices, which have reached a 14-year high, several Russian regions — including annexed Crimea — have introduced limits on the amount of fuel that can be sold to a single customer.

To ease the crisis, the Russian government has banned the export of gasoline and diesel, increased fuel purchases from Belarus, and, according to Kommersant, is preparing to begin imports from China, Singapore, and South Korea.

By Nazrin Sadigova