Biden vs. Trump II is likely America's unhappy fate Analysis by Ian Bremmer

In his article for Nikkei Asia, Ian Bremmer argues that the race for the White House in 2024 will be an extraordinarily ugly one.

Caliber.Az reprints the article.

Recent polls suggest that 60% of Americans do not want Donald Trump to run for president in 2024. Some 70% say President Joe Biden should not run again either.

Just 42% of Americans think Biden is performing well as president. At the same point of his term, Trump's rating stood at 38%.

In 2016, Trump became the oldest person ever to win the White House. He will be 77 next year. In 2020, Biden beat Trump and his age record. He is now 80.

Improbable as it may seem given the numbers, America is now preparing for a Biden-Trump rematch in November 2024.

Why is this happening?

Let's start with Trump. In today's Republican Party, the voter base, not the party elite, is setting the terms of political warfare. For all his legions of critics, rivals, enemies and legal problems, Trump's pugilistic populism still inspires millions of supporters, and no other Republican comes close.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has yet to declare his candidacy, looks to be the only possible contender with a chance to beat Trump. But DeSantis knows he cannot win the Republican presidential nomination without support from millions of Trump voters. Trump, aware of the governor's ambitions, is waging a relentless war of criticism and mockery against him before DeSantis is even in the race.

Trump faces serious legal problems and will face more. Some of the likely charges against him are far more serious than the porn star-hush money case he has been formally charged in. Plus there are more civil cases, like the $5 million lawsuit he lost this month to former journalist E. Jean Carroll over sexual abuse and defamation allegations.

None of the other criminal prosecutions will move forward for many more months, and not even a conviction would prevent Trump from running for president. In the meantime, his legal woes will keep his name in the news as a "victim of a political witch hunt," as he frames these developments, depriving other Republican candidates of the attention they need to overcome his advantages.

Elite Republican lawmakers and many leading donors blame the political baggage-laden Trump for losing to an uninspiring Biden in 2020. Many also say he cost Republicans the chance to take control of the U.S. Senate in last year's midterm elections.

But Trump's continuing hold on Republican voters who crave his lack of political polish and love his relentless style will ensure that if he wins his party's nominating contest, the Republican rich and powerful will have little choice but to fall in line, back him, and hope for the best.

And why would Democrats allow Biden to carry their standard for another campaign?

Nearly half of Democrats polled say Biden is too old for another term. But most also feel that another Trump presidency would prove catastrophic and see little choice but to stick with the man who has beaten Trump before.

Modern American presidential history shows that incumbent presidents, such as Harry Truman and Lyndon B. Johnson, who choose not to seek reelection or those who face tough challengers from within their parties, such as Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, usually see presidential power pass to the other party.

Biden's only Democratic challengers up to this point are rivals with no chance to win. Nor can Biden step aside to allow Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place at the top of the ticket since she is even less popular than he is.

There will be important differences between 2020 and 2024. This time, Biden is the president, with all the advantages and disadvantages, and the powers and responsibilities, that the office provides for a candidate seeking reelection.

Trump still has a presidential record to brag about and defend, but Biden will be in charge until the votes are counted next year. That also means it will be even harder for Trump to organize a new effort to overturn an election result he does not like.

Another difference: This election is not being run in the middle of a pandemic. That removes an issue from the race that hurt Trump badly in 2020, but it also deprives the aging Biden of any excuse for adopting a light campaign schedule that would helpfully lower his public profile.

In the end, American voters tend to reelect incumbent presidents, and Biden remains likely to win a rematch with the exhaustingly controversial Trump.
But it would be foolish to assume that Trump cannot win. Biden's age will shine a bright spotlight on every new question about his health and personal energy level.

Nor are Americans happy with the country's current direction. In one recent survey, 69% of respondents expressed negative views about the economy both now and in the future -- the highest percentage in that particular poll's 17-year history. Presidents usually take the blame for those kinds of numbers.

Biden's best hope might well be a Republican opponent other than Trump. Another candidate will not inspire populist voter passions like Trump can, but if for any reason Trump loses the Republican nomination, he might well wage a political war of revenge on his own party, including running as an independent candidate and winning just enough votes in key states to swing the election to Biden. Then again, this threat could lead Republicans to seek to avoid that fate by sticking with Trump.

For now, the election remains 18 months away, and there will certainly be major news stories and surprises along the way. The timing of a possible economic recession in the U.S. could be crucial. But one thing is certain: The race for the White House in 2024 will be an extraordinarily ugly one.