Canada quietly models response to hypothetical US invasion

The Canadian Armed Forces have developed a conceptual model examining how Canada might respond to a hypothetical military invasion by the United States, senior government officials have confirmed, marking what is believed to be the first such exercise in more than a century, The Globe and Mail reports.

According to two senior officials, the modelling explores a scenario in which US forces launch an attack from the south and rapidly overwhelm Canada’s strategic positions on land and at sea—potentially within days. The exercise is strictly theoretical and does not constitute an operational war plan, but rather a framework used to test assumptions and assess vulnerabilities.

Officials acknowledged that Canada lacks the manpower and advanced military capabilities to repel a conventional US assault. As a result, planners focused on unconventional warfare, including insurgency-style tactics such as ambushes, sabotage, drone warfare and hit-and-run attacks carried out by small units of irregular forces or armed civilians.

One official said the model draws on historical examples, including tactics used by the Afghan mujahedeen against Soviet forces during the 1979–1989 war, and later by the Taliban against US-led forces. “The aim of such tactics would be to impose mass casualties on US occupying forces,” the source said.

The officials and several defence experts stressed that a US invasion of Canada remains highly unlikely. Relations between the Canadian and US militaries are described as positive, with ongoing cooperation on continental defence and participation in a new missile defence initiative. Nevertheless, the modelling reflects heightened threat assessments amid increasingly confrontational rhetoric from President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly suggested Canada could become the 51st US state and has challenged NATO allies over Greenland.

Military planners envisage that warning signs of an invasion would include the collapse of NORAD cooperation and signals that the shared air defence arrangement had ended. Canada would have, at most, several months to prepare.

Retired Major-General David Fraser said it was “unthinkable” that Canada had to consider such scenarios but argued insurgency tactics would be the only viable response. “There is a quantum difference between defending another land like Canadians did in Afghanistan versus defending Windsor, Ontario,” he said.

Other experts noted that while Canada could not withstand a conventional invasion, occupying a country of its size would pose enormous challenges for any force. “Like Ukraine, it would be inconceivable to me that we would give up if they seized our capital,” said retired Lieutenant-General Mike Day.

By Vafa Guliyeva