Central Asian economies projected to grow 6.1% in 2025, EBRD forecasts

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts an average growth of 6.1% for Central Asian economies — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan — in 2025, with growth moderating to 5.2% in 2026. 

Growth is driven by strong industrial output, domestic demand, rising wages, investments, and remittance inflows. Key risks include commodity price volatility, reliance on remittances, and dependence on Russian and Chinese markets, Caliber.Az reports per the EBRD forecast. 

Kazakhstan, the region’s largest economy, is expected to grow 5.7% in 2025, fueled by increased oil production, industrial growth, and construction.

The Kyrgyz Republic leads with 9.0% growth, supported by public investment, manufacturing, and tourism. Mongolia’s GDP is projected to expand by 5.8%, driven by agriculture and services despite mining sector challenges.

Tajikistan shows strong momentum with 7.5% growth, bolstered by mining, remittances, and international cooperation.

Turkmenistan’s economy is expected to grow 6.3%, supported by trade, services, and investment. Uzbekistan’s economy is set to expand 6.7%, led by domestic consumption, manufacturing, and gold mining.

The EBRD highlights potential vulnerabilities from commodity price swings and remittance fluctuations, alongside geopolitical dependencies.

By Sabina Mammadli