Coffee supply chain under pressure as climate risks reshape harvests

Coffee lovers are increasingly paying more for their daily cup as climate change disrupts global production, with rising temperatures, erratic rainfall and extreme weather reshaping where coffee can be grown and how reliably it can be supplied.

The industry is facing a more fragile supply chain, marked by volatile harvests, inconsistent bean quality and rising costs for farmers, manufacturers and consumers, according to data from GlobalData.

Arabica coffee, which accounts for more than half of global output, is particularly vulnerable. It thrives in cooler climates between 15°C and 24°C, typically at higher altitudes.

Rising global temperatures are placing coffee trees under increasing heat stress, reducing flowering, lowering yields and affecting bean development. Climate research indicates that major coffee-producing countries are now experiencing an average of 57 additional heat-stress days per year, with El Salvador among the hardest hit.

Long-term projections suggest the situation could deteriorate further. Analysts at Rabobank estimate that around 20% of current arabica-growing regions may become unsuitable by 2050.

The report warns that production could become concentrated in fewer viable regions, heightening the risk of global supply shocks when extreme weather hits key growing areas.

Changing taste profiles

Katamaneni Greeshma Kasturi, a consumer analyst at GlobalData, said the shrinking number of suitable growing zones increases the likelihood of supply disruptions, intensifying price volatility and availability concerns.

“Quality is also at risk. Higher temperatures can accelerate ripening, giving beans less time to develop sugars and aromatic complexity,” she said. “Excess rain during harvest increases the likelihood of fermentation defects and mold, whilst sudden changes in humidity complicate drying and storage, raising defect rates and quality variation.”

She added that climate change is affecting not only total output but also the consistency, predictability and overall quality of coffee across the supply chain.

The impact is already evident in global markets. The Food and Agriculture Organization reported a nearly 40% surge in coffee prices in 2024, driven largely by weather-related supply disruptions.

When harvests fall short, exporters often restrict sales, making it harder for manufacturers to meet contracts. Brands are increasingly turning to alternative sourcing or substituting different bean grades, sometimes shifting toward more heat-resilient Robusta coffee, which can alter flavour profiles.

In response, producers and industry groups are adopting adaptation strategies, including shade-grown farming, agroforestry systems and the development of more resilient coffee varieties better suited to withstand heat, drought and pests.

By Nazrin Sadigova