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"Control of Lachin road is the beginning of reintegration process of Karabakh Armenians" Farhad Mammadov presents his conclusions

15 December 2022 10:31

Farhad Mammadov, the Head of the South Caucasus Research Center, commented on the ongoing protest rally by representatives of the Azerbaijani public on the Shusha-Khankendi road in Karabakh.

He provided his readers with his observation of the situation through his Telegram channel.

“The third day of standing on the Lachin road - the first conclusions:

- Is that the parties have indicated their positions and have demonstrated that they are ready to remain till the end: Azerbaijan has built infrastructure on the ground (even a football match could be watched [there on TV] yesterday), and human resources are present. Armenia and the Armenians of Karabakh have moved to a circular defence and complaints - this is what they do best. Russia adapted a wait-and-see attitude on the first day, it failed to take responsibility in making decisions, transmitted Azerbaijan’s demands and listened to Armenia’s response: a position similar to that of Russia during the 44-day war, the only difference being that Russia is now ‘on the ground’, but without a mandate. They’ll wait for one side to accept the other.

- Is the fate of the Lachin corridor/road: This is the main subject of all that is happening. Azerbaijan is aiming to control the road. For several months, Baku has demonstrated the facts (photos of Iranian saboteurs [with Commander Volkov having had to admit this fact], video of the export of ore, Armenian landmines from 2021, etc.) by putting forward its claim for control. Which would in any ways be after a peace treaty. Dynamics of processes in the zone of the TEMPORARY DEPLOYED Russian peacekeepers in Azerbaijan created conditions for accelerated actions.

Does Russia agree to a shared control together with Azerbaijan? Of course not, but it will have to... 'Project Vardanyan' flopped! However, I would suggest that Russia seeks to share responsibility in making this decision in a trilateral format. While Azerbaijan shares relations with Armenia and processes in Karabakh, Russia still seeks to leave all processes in a trilateral format with Armenia’s participation. Let’s recall the mandate of the peacekeeping contingent, which we learned from the Secretary of the Armenian Security Council when he admitted that Armenia had given its consent to the mandate of the peacekeepers and Azerbaijan had refused. Baku, in turn, is not going to make a decision on Karabakh with Armenia’s participation. That is why Russia is now waiting, putting forward Armenia’s patrons with pressure on Baku. That is, the US, the EU, and France, with their one-sided statements against Azerbaijan, are fully consistent with Russia’s tactics in the current situation. This makes it possible to keep Vardanyan in Karabakh, to disrupt the peace process and to discredit the West in its impotence to influence the process.

This is what I think that they think...

- The control of the road is important for Azerbaijan: it is the beginning of the process of reintegration of the Armenians of Karabakh (ordinary Armenian residents of the Azerbaijani region), the breaking of myths and the destruction of the 'Vardanyan project'.

On the other hand, if Armenia is in fact not lying and really has withdrawn its armed forces from Karabakh, does not supply arms and mines to Karabakh and does not engage in illegal economic activities, then why is it opposed to the control of the Lachin road by Azerbaijan?! Just because it is in the Trilateral Statement?! There are other points that Armenia itself does not comply with!

Everyone, starting in the West (USA, EU), the North (Russia), the East and South, who sincerely wants to settle the situation and calls Baku, must recognize that the territory of Karabakh is an integral part of Azerbaijan. 'Karabakh is Azerbaijan', 'Khankendi, Aghdere and Khojavand are Azerbaijan' and say this publicly. Otherwise, Baku will hear the position, but will not attach any importance to it. The process has already reached the national level and all those who hesitate have to make a choice!

- The events on the Lachin Road are also an examination for intermediaries. Azerbaijan is testing the mediators: whether they see the process with the Armenians of Karabakh as part of a common package with the process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Will the US and EU peace treaty stakeholders be able not to make the peace treaty process between Azerbaijan and Armenia dependent on the Karabakh processes? Seeing as it is an internal affair of Azerbaijan.

It’s a test on the genuineness of the mediators, on their honesty.

The tug of war continues...”, Mammadov’s post read.

Caliber.Az
Views: 116

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