Estonian intelligence chief: No sign of Russian threat to Baltics

There is currently no intelligence-based indication that Russia could open a new front against the Baltic states, according to Colonel Ants Kiviselg, head of Estonia’s Defence Forces Intelligence Centre.

However, he cautioned that the Kremlin often acts unpredictably and is capable of making irrational decisions, Caliber.Az reports, citing Estonian media.

Speaking about how aggression risks are assessed, Kiviselg said the process is complex and requires evaluating Russia’s current military capacity, political intent, and its ability to conduct operations in an international context.

He noted that Russia has largely failed to achieve its strategic objectives in Ukraine. Even where some goals have been met, this has happened significantly later than originally planned.

His comments follow remarks last week by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said Russia was disrupting civilian internet access as part of efforts linked to mobilisation, which could potentially affect the Baltic region.

Kiviselg said mobilisation in Russia is currently necessary to sustain the tempo of operations in Ukraine. He argued that Russia’s existing recruitment methods—drawing from prisoners and contract soldiers—are no longer sufficient to maintain the current pace of fighting.

“A level has been reached where, to maintain this intensity of attacks, mobilisation is required,” he said. However, he stressed that there are no signs suggesting mobilised troops would be used against NATO countries or the Baltic states.

“At present, even if mobilisation takes place in Russia, there are no indicators that these forces would be deployed against NATO states,” Kiviselg said, adding that Estonia’s military intelligence continuously works to prevent the outbreak of wider conflict.

While no direct threat indicators have been identified, he acknowledged that Russia’s leadership remains unpredictable.

“From a rational perspective, it would not make sense for the Russian Federation to open a new front elsewhere,” he said. “However, we have seen that Russia does not always act rationally and may make strategic miscalculations.”

By Aghakazim Guliyev