EU mission as security umbrella for Armenian army Iran, Russia tight-lipped

As already reported on February 22 by Caliber.Az with reference to the Azerbaijani Defence Ministry press service, the Azerbaijani army positions were shelled 15 times (!?) on February 21-22. The Azerbaijani army's combat posts in Tovuz, the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, Shusha and Kalbajar were under fire. This is the largest armed provocation of the Armenian army and its remnants in Azerbaijan's Karabakh region over the past two months – the last time the ministry issued a message about the enemy shelling Azerbaijani army positions on December 30, 2022. What is the source of the current agitation? As it turned out, this has a logical explanation.

On February 20, the European Union mission in Armenia officially started its work. The total number of its staff will be 100 people. According to Brussels, "the mission is designed for two years in order to promote stability in the border areas of Armenia, strengthen trust and security in the regions affected by the Karabakh conflict, as well as contribute to the normalisation of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan". But, just a day later, the Armenian forces shelled our positions both from the territory of Armenia and from the territories located in the zone of the Russian peacekeepers' temporary responsibility.

As we remember, Azerbaijan has repeatedly stated that the EU mission arrival will not stabilise, but aggravate the regional situation, because, on the one hand, it will allow Yerevan to delay negotiations on a peace treaty and border delimitation, and on the other, it will inspire the military-political leadership of the "country of stones", which will feel more confident behind the Europeans. And now Baku's position, its statements regarding the EU mission and Yerevan's behaviour have been confirmed already on February 21.

That is, Armenia considered the presence of European observers in the region a "security umbrella" for itself and therefore became emboldened. Apparently, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at a meeting held on February 21 with Managing Director of the European External Relations Service for Civil Planning & Behaviour [CPCC] Stefano Tomat and EU mission head in Armenia Markus Ritter (Caliber.Az has already told readers about him) received the appropriate guarantees.

However, it does not matter to Azerbaijan which country or mission the Armenian armed detachments are hiding behind – if provocations and threats continue, the response will be tough! At a recent official meeting at the Defence Ministry, Defence Minister Colonel-General Zakir Hasanov gave specific instructions to maintain a high level of combat readiness of units to prevent a possible provocation at any time.

By the way, another touch on the nature of the "civil mission". It can be called civil conditionally not only because the head of the Ritter mission's track record resembles military experience, and not only because the vast majority of mission members are retired military elite units and active intelligence officers from various Western countries, but also because 50 of the 100 participants in the European "landing personnel" will be armed.

That is, although the EU calls its mission "civilian" in a statement published on the day of its appearance in Armenia, it acknowledged for the first time that 50 out of 100 mission members will be "unarmed observers". This means that half of the mission consists of armed men. This fact came as a surprise even to the Armenian public. The Armenian leadership has so far kept secret even from its public that an armed EU mission was launched on the country's territory.

And finally. It is known that Iran categorically opposes the interference of extra-regional states in the problems of the South Caucasus, as well as their appearance in our region. But, oddly enough, Tehran still silently perceives the arrival of an armed mission of Europeans in Armenia, directly to its borders.

At the same time, Russia, although does not hide its negative attitude towards the EU mission's deployment in Armenia, it clearly does not take effective measures against attempts to oust it from the region. In other words, in this great geopolitical game of the West, directed not only against Azerbaijan but also to a greater extent against Iran and Russia, Moscow and Tehran have taken the position of silent observers. Why? Maybe because their "beloved child" Armenia is involved in this game as bait?