EU, US eye $800 billion prosperity plan to rebuild postwar Ukraine

A confidential document circulated among European Union capitals outlines an ambitious joint EU-US effort to mobilise up to $800 billion in public and private financing for Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction, contingent on an end to Russia’s full-scale invasion.

The 18-page paper, obtained by POLITICO, sets out a 10-year “prosperity plan” designed to underpin Ukraine’s economic recovery while fast-tracking its path toward European Union membership. Dated January 22, the document was shared by the European Commission with member states ahead of an EU leaders’ summit held on Thursday evening, according to three EU officials and diplomats who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the discussions.

The proposal reflects growing coordination between Brussels and Washington to position Ukraine as a long-term investment destination and future EU member state. However, the entire framework rests on a key assumption that remains unresolved: the establishment of a ceasefire. As long as active hostilities continue, the plan’s ability to draw large-scale private investment remains in doubt.

The funding architecture extends through 2040 and is paired with an initial 100-day operational roadmap intended to launch the recovery effort quickly once conditions allow. Still, advisers to the initiative warn that sustained fighting would severely limit investor appetite. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, which is advising on the reconstruction strategy on a pro-bono basis, has cautioned that capital inflows will remain constrained without improved security conditions.

“Think about it. If you're a pension fund, you're fiduciary towards your clients, your pensioners. It's nearly impossible to invest into a war zone,” BlackRock vice chairman Philipp Hildebrand said in an interview on Wednesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “I think it has to be sequenced and that's going to take some time.”

The prosperity plan forms one pillar of a broader 20-point peace blueprint the United States is attempting to broker between Kyiv and Moscow. The document explicitly assumes that security guarantees are already in place and does not address military arrangements. Instead, it concentrates on guiding Ukraine’s transition from emergency wartime assistance toward long-term, self-sustaining economic growth.

Against this backdrop, Ukrainian, Russian and US negotiators are scheduled to meet in Abu Dhabi on Friday and Saturday, as the war approaches its fourth anniversary. The document assigns Washington a central role in Ukraine’s recovery, framing the US not primarily as a donor, but as a strategic economic partner, investor and credibility anchor for the reconstruction effort.

The plan foresees direct involvement by American companies and technical expertise in Ukraine, and emphasizes the United States’ capacity to mobilize private capital. BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink has participated in peace-related discussions with Ukrainian officials alongside Jared Kushner, the son-in-law of US President Donald Trump, and Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff.

According to the document, the EU, the United States and international financial institutions — including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank — have collectively committed $500 billion in public and private financing over the next decade.

In addition, the European Commission plans to allocate €100 billion to Ukraine through budgetary support and investment guarantees under the bloc’s next seven-year financial framework starting in 2028. This funding is projected to unlock a further €207 billion in investment. The United States, for its part, has pledged to channel capital through a dedicated US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, though it did not specify an overall amount.

Despite having cut military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine during the conflict, the Trump administration signaled in the document its readiness to invest in the country once the war ends. Washington indicated it would target sectors including critical minerals, infrastructure, energy and technology.

For now, however, large-scale economic activity remains constrained by the realities of war.

“It's very hard to see that happening at scale as long as you have drones and missiles flying,” Hildebrand said.