European analyst: Armenia unlikely to secure NATO or EU membership

European analyst Uwe Halbach weighed in on Armenia's diplomatic prospects, particularly its aspirations towards NATO and EU membership in a recent dialogue with Armenian media outlets.

Halbach's insights come ahead of a pivotal trilateral meeting involving European Commission Chairman Ursula von der Leyen, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, scheduled for April 5, Caliber.Az reports.

Halbach underscored the significance of addressing Armenia's pressing issues within the context of the ongoing conflict and the nation's internal challenges. He emphasized the need for the United States and the European Union to grasp the intricacies of Armenia's predicament and strategize effective solutions.

Commenting on the meeting's geopolitical implications, Halbach hinted at the delicate balance required to navigate Armenia's relations with its neighbours. He noted Azerbaijan's importance as a key partner in the South Caucasus and stressed the necessity of clarifying any potential misunderstandings or misinterpretations that could arise from the meeting.

"The reaction should not be interpreted as a weakness of the West," Halbach remarked, suggesting that prior calculations underpin the diplomatic engagements. He suggested that the geopolitical calculus extends beyond the South Caucasus and encompasses broader strategic considerations.

While acknowledging the significance of the upcoming meeting for Armenia-West relations, Halbach tempered expectations regarding NATO and EU membership prospects. He highlighted the unprecedented nature of cooperation between the West and a Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) member state like Armenia.

At this stage, membership in NATO and the EU seems improbable, Halbach stated, citing complexities and uncertainties surrounding Armenia's geopolitical position. He speculated on potential indirect security arrangements and the Western response to Armenia's hypothetical departure from the CSTO.

Halbach cautioned against predicting immediate shifts in the South Caucasus, pointing to the ongoing geopolitical dynamics in Ukraine. He acknowledged the regional stakeholders' concerns but emphasized the focus on Armenia's evolving relationship with the West and its inherent potential.

“The negative attitude of Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran towards all this is quite understandable, but here we are talking exclusively about relations between Armenia and the West and the potential of Armenia. However, I see it this way, perhaps we will witness a different process,” the analyst said.