Former minister: EU membership may be perilous for Armenia

Armenian former Finance Minister Vardan Aramyan has said that there is political and economic integration.

Aramyan remarked on the political and economic integration involved, commenting on Armenia’s aspirations for EU membership, Caliber.Az reports citing the Armenian media.

“As for economic integration, the countries generally go through six stages, there are six different levels of integration. The first level is preferential trade, when you have the same regime with all partner countries, but with one country you have a special preferential regime. The second level is free trade, when you agree with the duty-free movement of goods and services. The third level is the Customs Union. From the third level of integration, you have to abandon the foreign trade policy. The fourth level is a common market while the fifth level is a common currency belt. The sixth level is called full integration. The only model for this is the US, where every state is a state within a state,” he said.

Aramyan noted that economic integration cannot be separated from political integration.

“It is impossible, for example, for Scandinavian countries to integrate with Latin American countries because the interests of the Scandinavian countries align with those of the EU. Joining the EU requires going through specific economic stages,” Aramyan said.

Aramyan highlighted that despite ongoing negotiations about EU integration, Armenia's foreign trade turnover with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) has increased since 2018.

“In 2018, our foreign trade with the EAEU and the EU member states was almost equal. However, in the first four months of this year, trade turnover with the EAEU exceeded 46 per cent, while the EU's share dropped to 15-16 per cent,” he said.

He also noted that many people support EU membership, believing it would lead to open borders and the ability to freely travel to Europe.

“However, they forget that having an income and a job is necessary to afford flying to Rome and enjoying an espresso. Without income, this becomes impossible. While a visa-free regime might exist, job opportunities would diminish because we are heavily dependent on the Russian economy. Our growing construction, trade, and service sectors are primarily linked to Russia,” Aramyan said.

"If we choose to leave the EAEU, its protective measures will work against us. Our exporters would lose access to duty-free trade, leading to a loss of competitiveness. Re-exporting through Armenia could become unprofitable. These consequences are overlooked. People don't understand what joining the EU entails. Jobs will be lost. This doesn't even consider the duty-free energy resources we receive from Russia, which is a significant advantage for us," Aramyan added.

He also pointed out that if Armenia leaves the EAEU, Armenian exporters will immediately have to pay customs duties to enter EAEU member states.

"This will happen right away. Additionally, in the event of a political confrontation, Russia could implement its own measures. Thus, abruptly changing policy could be dangerous. Our dependence on the EAEU market has significantly increased," the former minister added.