Germany's zeitenwende: Is Scholz's foreign policy shift a true turning point?

In a February 2022 address, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz marked a significant shift in Germany’s foreign and security policy, known as the Zeitenwende ("turning-point"), following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Scholz pledged to meet NATO’s defence-spending target of 2% of GDP and enhance energy resilience, signalling Germany’s commitment to a more assertive role in global security. However, as the country approaches its February 23rd election, questions arise about the lasting impact of this shift, as outlined by The Economist.

Three years after Scholz’s speech, some substantial changes have materialized. Germany has committed to meeting NATO’s defence spending target, with discussions already shifting to a potential increase to 3%. The nation has also pivoted away from its previous energy dependency on Russia, contributing significant aid to Ukraine, despite occasional hesitations from Scholz. Furthermore, Boris Pistorius, Germany’s defence minister, has gained popularity by advocating for a "war-capable" military. Yet, for all these changes, there remains a sense that Germany’s strategic overhaul has not been fully realized.

While the shift away from passive foreign policy is evident, critics argue that much of Germany’s decision-making remains reactive rather than strategic. Military experts, such as Carlo Masala from the Bundeswehr University, point out that since the Russian withdrawal from Kyiv, German policy has largely reverted to peacetime norms. Stefan Meister from the German Council on Foreign Relations similarly highlights that although Germany’s aid to Ukraine is significant, broader strategic shifts—such as reforming the military and strengthening defence capabilities—remain insufficient.

Moreover, with defence funding running short in the coming years, officials will need to address a gap of €30 billion annually. The debate over how to manage this funding gap, as well as Germany’s growing dependence on China amid global protectionism, remains largely absent from the election campaign, frustrating many observers.

Looking ahead, Germany faces crucial decisions about its future role in Ukraine’s potential post-war settlement and its broader foreign policy. The upcoming election, and the uncertainty surrounding Germany’s response to challenges such as American trade tariffs, reflects a broader issue: the lack of urgency or strategic direction in the country's political discourse. As the article from The Economist concludes, the global "world afterwards" may not be as different from the one before unless Germany confronts these existential issues head-on.

By Vugar Khalilov