How the 2024 presidential election could reshape US-China relations?

In a recent article from Foreign Affairs, the intricate dynamics of U.S.-China relations are explored in the context of the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential elections, focusing on how potential leadership changes could reshape the geopolitical landscape.

The analysis emphasizes the contrasting approaches of former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden, revealing how their differing policies may influence international relations, particularly concerning China. As the world watches the U.S. election season, the implications of these political shifts extend beyond American borders, prompting countries to scrutinize how the election outcome might impact global geopolitics.

The article highlights the bipartisan consensus in Washington that views China as a significant adversary. Trump's tenure was marked by a confrontational approach, branding China a "revisionist power" and a strategic competitor. This posture resonated with the "America First" philosophy, tapping into broader sentiments against globalization and immigration. In contrast, Biden's administration, while also adopting a tough stance, integrates domestic issues into its foreign policy, branding it as a "foreign policy for the middle class." This continuity in aggression towards China, regardless of party affiliation, suggests that U.S. policy toward Beijing is likely to remain consistently critical.

The article presents a three-tiered debate within U.S. strategic circles regarding the approach to China: the New Cold Warriors, who advocate for a more aggressive strategy; the Competition Managers, who favour a balanced coexistence; and the Accommodationists, who fear that escalating tensions could lead to conflict. This complex interplay reflects a broader recognition of the challenges posed by China, prompting calls for a unified, bipartisan response.

Interestingly, the article questions whether China has a preference for one U.S. political party over the other. Historical interactions suggest that pragmatism often overshadows ideological considerations in China's approach to U.S. politics. As such, Beijing's expectations of U.S. policy remain consistent, irrespective of the electoral outcome. Observers note that, should Trump regain power, his administration might adopt an even more aggressive trade stance, possibly revoking China's permanent normal trade relations status and pushing for broader technological decoupling.

The article also discusses China's cautious stance as it approaches the 2024 elections. While Chinese officials publicly maintain that the election is an internal U.S. affair, they may respond to perceived attacks during the campaigns. This reflects a dual strategy of noninterference coupled with a need to safeguard China's interests. The analysis underscores that despite the volatility in U.S. politics, China's focus remains on maintaining domestic stability and economic growth.

Additionally, the article delves into the Taiwan issue, framing it as a core interest for China. Beijing seeks peaceful unification but is prepared to respond assertively to any perceived provocations. In this context, the South China Sea and relations with neighbouring countries like the Philippines are also significant, with China emphasizing self-reliance in technology and economic matters.

In conclusion, the Foreign Affairs article offers a nuanced perspective on the evolving U.S.-China relationship in light of the impending presidential elections. It illustrates the complexities of political dynamics and their ramifications for global geopolitics, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. Ultimately, the analysis suggests that regardless of which candidate emerges victorious, a return to the deep cooperation seen earlier in the 21st century is unlikely, as both nations confront the realities of an increasingly contentious international order.

By Vugar Khalilov