IMF: Azerbaijan’s average economic growth to reach 2.35%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Azerbaijan’s GDP will grow by 2.2% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.

The IMF has revised up the 2026 forecast by 0.1 percentage point compared to February estimates, while the 2027 outlook remains unchanged, according to the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook report, as cited by local media.

Based on these projections, the country’s average annual economic growth over the two years is expected to stand at 2.35%.

The IMF also forecasts a slowdown in the Middle East and Central Asia region, from 3.6% in 2025 to 1.9% in 2026, followed by a recovery to 4.6% in 2027, as the region is more directly affected by the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran.

For the Caucasus and Central Asia subregion, growth is expected at 4.8% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027.

The report notes that the outlook for commodity-exporting economies has been revised downward due to reduced production and exports linked to regional tensions, particularly affecting energy and transport infrastructure and reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.

The IMF also highlights a broadly positive momentum in the Caucasus and Central Asia, raising its combined growth forecast for 2026–2027 by 0.3 percentage points.

According to projections, the global economy is expected to grow at an average rate of 3.1% per year in 2028–2031.

This remains persistently weak compared to the pre-pandemic historical average of 3.7% recorded in 2000–2019. The slowdown primarily reflects weaker growth in China. At the same time, lower growth is also expected across several major economies, including countries in Asia, the Middle East and Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, North America, and Europe.

The IMF’s February forecasts suggest that Azerbaijan’s economy will expand by an average of 2.5% annually in 2028-2031.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Economy projects GDP growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027, while the Central Bank expects growth of 2.4% this year and 2.9% next year.

Forecasts from international institutions vary.

S&P Global expects 2% growth in 2026, Fitch Ratings and Moody’s both project 2.5%, while the Asian Development Bank forecasts 2% growth in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.

ING Group expects Azerbaijan’s economy to expand by 2.5% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecasts 2% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027.

The World Bank projects GDP growth of 2% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, while the United Nations estimates growth of 2.7% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027.

In 2025, Azerbaijan’s economy grew by 1.4%.

By Bakhtiyar Abbasov