India voices concerns over China's mega dam project in Tibet

According to its recent article, Financial Times describes that India has expressed significant concern over China's plans to build a massive dam in Tibet, a project that could have far-reaching implications for the region's water supply and geopolitical stability. 

India has raised concerns about China’s plan to construct a dam in Tibet that will be three times larger than the current world’s largest hydropower facility, China’s Three Gorges Dam. 

The new hydropower project, located in the lower Yarlung Tsangpo river, was announced last month as part of China’s broader initiative to build a series of dams across Tibet. This project is aligned with China’s goal to boost its renewable energy consumption share from 28.8 per cent in 2020 to 33 per cent in 2023. 

India’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Randhir Jaiswal, expressed concerns, stating, “It is a mega project with a lot of ecological disturbances and it does not take into account the interests of the lower riparian states.” 

This disagreement arises as the two countries work on mending their relations following deadly border clashes in 2020. In October, New Delhi and Beijing reached a deal to resolve a military standoff and agreed to conduct joint military patrols along their disputed Himalayan border.

Analysts suggest India’s concerns revolve around the potential for floods and water shortages downstream, as well as China gaining a strategic advantage in any future conflict. “There are fears of all kinds,” said Shivshankar Menon, India’s former national security adviser and chair of the Ashoka Centre for China Studies. “The geopolitics don’t help, obviously, because nobody trusts anybody in this.”

Tibet holds a third of China's hydroelectric power potential. The Yarlung Tsangpo, which is the world's highest major waterway, is Tibet's longest river. It is known as the Brahmaputra in India before flowing into Bangladesh, where it becomes the Jamuna.

The 60-gigawatt dam planned for the Tibetan plateau’s rim is situated near the border with the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. This area is significant because China claims sovereignty over it, and it was the site of the 1962 war between the two countries.

“India and Bangladesh are concerned that the dam would change the river’s natural flow, which could disrupt access to water for agriculture, drinking and other essential human needs,” said Neeraj Singh Manhas, a South Asia expert on transboundary rivers and water security.

Barry Sautman, a political scientist at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, noted that China could argue Tibet is not the main source of water for the Brahmaputra. “Somewhere between 7 per cent and 30 per cent of the water comes from Tibet. The rest comes from rainfall [downstream],” said Sautman.

When Beijing officially announced the dam on Christmas Day, it stated that the project would “bring more sense of gain, happiness and security to the people of all ethnic groups in Tibet.”

Chinese officials have downplayed concerns regarding the potential environmental impact or water supply disruptions downstream. “The project will not have a negative impact on the ecological environment, geological conditions and the rights and interests related to water resources of downstream countries,” said Guo Jiakun, spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry.

Activists argue that the 193 hydropower projects built in Tibet since 2000 have led to severe environmental damage and human rights violations. China's large-scale dam projects in Tibet have previously faced intense opposition, such as the controversy surrounding the Kamtok (or Gangtuo) hydroelectric plant on the eastern Jinsha River.

“We are anticipating there would be a huge negative impact,” said Malik Fida Khan, executive director of Bangladesh’s Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services, a government research center.

India is also planning its own massive dam project, the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project, set to be the largest in the subcontinent with a capacity of 11GW in Arunachal Pradesh. 

Pema Khandu, the chief minister of Arunachal Pradesh, told the Indian news agency PTI that the dam aims to “mitigate potential flood risks from water releases” because China is “unpredictable and can do anything.”

India’s proposed dam project has also sparked opposition from local communities and raised concerns in Bangladesh.

By Naila Huseynova