ISW: Putin focuses on strengthening Russian economic control over Belarus

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Moscow on April 5 and 6 to discuss further Union State integration, with Putin likely focused on strengthening Russian economic control over Belarus.

Putin and Lukashenko held a one-on-one meeting on April 5 and attended a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State on April 6 to address Union State integration efforts on security, economic, defence, cultural, and humanitarian topics, Caliber.Az reports, citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

"Putin and Lukashenko both noted that Russian and Belarusian officials are focused on import substitution measures (likely to mitigate Western sanctions) and supporting microelectronic industries. Putin stated that Russian and Belarusian officials are continuing the process of creating a joint oil and gas market and are working on drafting an agreement for the formation of a single electricity market," the report said.

The Kremlin is likely advancing longstanding efforts to subsume elements of Belarus’ defence industrial base (DIB), and both states are likely using Union State economic integration efforts to augment their ongoing sanctions evasion measures, ISW said.

Key takeaways

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Moscow on April 5 and 6 to discuss further Union State integration, with Putin likely focused on strengthening Russian economic control over Belarus.

Lukashenko delivered boilerplate rhetoric that continues to indicate that he has no intention of involving Belarus further in Russia’s war effort.

Russian commanders are reportedly constructing specialized company-size units within key frontline formations engaged in urban combat to reinforce the diminished combat effectiveness of most Russian units.

Russian forces will likely deploy these “Storm Z” units along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City frontline.

China continues to rhetorically downplay its support for Russia and demonstrate that there are limits to the declared “no limits” Russian–Chinese partnership, but it will not be a true neutral arbiter in the war.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City line.

Ukrainian officials indicated that Russian forces are able to maintain a suitable rate of artillery fire in prioritized areas of the front at the expense of other sectors.

Russian forces may have withdrawn equipment from occupied Crimea for redeployment elsewhere in southern Ukraine out of fear of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu visited Russian Defense Industrial Base (DIB) enterprises in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast to monitor the implementation of state defence orders.

Russian President Vladimir Putin held one-on-one meetings with Russian occupation authorities.