ISW: Russian military faces delays in Syria withdrawal as critical supplies await delivery

On December 15, Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian forces are facing logistical challenges while withdrawing from Syria, amid rumours of Moscow planning to maintain a smaller presence.

Reportedly, there are growing concerns among Russian troops stationed at the Port of Tartus and Hmeimim Air Base in Latakia, where supply shortages are reportedly affecting water and food provisions, Caliber.Az reports via ISW.

Russian military personnel in these areas, along with those aboard nearby vessels, are awaiting critical food deliveries from Russian transport aircraft involved in the broader evacuation of military assets.

"Reports suggest that the Kremlin may not fully evacuate these bases in the immediate future, given the ongoing supply challenges," GUR stated in its report.

The presence of Russian ships such as the Admiral Golovko-class frigate and possibly the Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate, which were spotted roughly 15 kilometres off the coast of Tartus, further suggests that the evacuation is proceeding more slowly than expected.

In addition to logistical issues, GUR noted the involvement of unspecified armed groups that fought against the Assad regime, who are now accompanying Russian forces as they retreat from remote areas of Syria, likely heading towards the western coast.

Reports from a Syrian anti-Assad media outlet also suggest that Russian forces have begun withdrawing from the Tiyas Air Base, located west of Palmyra, towards Hmeimim Air Base.

Meanwhile, Russia’s strategic withdrawal from northern Syria continues. The GUR highlighted the recent evacuation of Russian forces from bases in the Manbij and Kobani areas, as Türkiye intensifies its offensive against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). It is also likely that Russia will soon vacate its remaining major base in northern Syria, Qamishli, as Turkish and local forces seem poised to prevent Russian consolidation there.

Amid these developments, Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler indicated on December 15 that Türkiye may support Russia's efforts to solidify its presence at Hmeimim and Tartus. “We will offer our support for Russia’s consolidation at these bases,” Güler said, signalling Ankara’s willingness to back Russia’s strategic interests in Syria, but with a clear rejection of Russia’s other bases.

Compounding Russia’s challenges, a source close to the Kremlin revealed on December 15 that Sergei Naryshkin, Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, may have fallen out of favour with President Vladimir Putin following the collapse of the Assad regime. 

According to the insider, Putin recently rescinded a decree that was to award Naryshkin with a state honour, marking a significant shift in the dynamics of Russian political and intelligence leadership.

By Aghakazim Guliyev