Media: China set for political overhaul as 2025 sees wave of leadership changes

As President Xi Jinping navigates the halfway mark of his unprecedented third term, China’s political landscape is set to undergo a significant reshuffle.

According to the Asia Society, roughly one-fifth of China’s local leaders are due to retire in 2025, creating openings for officials born in the 1970s to ascend to high-ranking positions, Caliber.Az reports via Bloomberg.

This shake-up provides a first look at the generation of officials likely to dominate China's leadership in the coming decades.

The rise of the post-1970s generation is of particular interest. These officials, who will be in their sixties when Xi reaches his eighties, could play a central role in the country's governance as Xi possibly hands over power or steps down.

The timing is crucial as Xi's succession has become an increasingly sensitive issue, especially following his decision to forgo naming a successor at the 2022 Communist Party Congress, which marked a departure from decades of tradition.

One prominent figure emerging in this new cohort is Liu Jie, who recently became the youngest provincial governor in China. Appointed governor of Zhejiang province, Liu, 55, has already made a name for himself in Hangzhou, a key tech hub.

His rise is seen as emblematic of the “luckiest generation,” a group that largely avoided the turmoil of the Mao era and benefitted from China's economic integration and the global mobility offered during the early 21st century.

Neil Thomas, a fellow for Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute, notes, “The longer Xi stays in power, the more likely his eventual successor will be drawn from the ranks of the post-70s generation. It’s also possible that Xi breaks more norms and keeps his close allies in power well beyond traditional retirement ages, ushering in a new era of 'old man politics' in Beijing.”

Xi's consolidation of power and his path towards potentially ruling for life raise questions about the future of China’s political system. Despite the reshuffle in the ranks, discussions surrounding the emergence of younger leaders have become increasingly sensitive.

In early January, a Shanghai news outlet published an article about promising young officials but quickly scrubbed the report from the internet, a move widely interpreted as censorship.

Among other rising stars are Li Yunze, appointed head of China’s financial regulator in 2023, and A Dong, the head of the Communist Youth League. Both, born in the early 1970s, have reached the senior-most ministerial ranks, just below the powerful Politburo. Their ascension highlights the importance of this generation in China’s political trajectory, particularly as the nation seeks stability during a period of intense geopolitical and economic challenges.

Liu Hongjian, a party official from Fujian, and Guo Ningning, who serves as party chief in Fuzhou, are other key figures within this group, though their futures remain uncertain. The unpredictability of promotions under Xi’s leadership further complicates any assumptions about the next generation of leaders.

As Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, points out, “As Xi effectively removed term limits, it’s likely he doesn’t want any discussions about a potential successor.” This move has sparked speculation that Xi may prefer to keep his closest allies in power, prolonging his own influence in a manner that would redefine the nation’s political norms.

While the fate of these rising leaders remains uncertain, the coming reshuffle in 2025 is set to provide the clearest indication yet of who may steer China’s future as Xi’s era gradually transitions. The focus will not only be on the young cadre members but also on how they navigate the increasingly opaque and complex political environment under Xi’s long-standing rule.

By Aghakazim Guliyev