Media: US bets big on Armenia with potential $13 billion investment surge

Armenia is preparing for a potential wave of US-led investment exceeding $13 billion — a figure equivalent to nearly half of the country’s annual economic output — in a development that could significantly reduce its longstanding economic dependence on Russia, Bloomberg reports.

US Vice President JD Vance’s visit to Yerevan this week marked a pivotal moment in bilateral relations. During the trip, he signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement valued at up to $9 billion, signaling a substantial deepening of Washington’s engagement with the South Caucasus republic. In parallel, a separate $4 billion expansion of an artificial intelligence initiative could further reshape the outlook for Armenia’s $27 billion economy.

“The numbers themselves are quite significant,” said Dmitry Dolgin, ING Bank’s chief CIS economist. “If these initiatives gain credibility and provide a sense of longer-term stability, that could increase Armenia’s attractiveness for portfolio flows, direct investment and even remittances.”

The agreements in Yerevan, followed by Vance’s subsequent visit to neighboring Azerbaijan, underscore an intensifying geopolitical contest for influence in the Caucasus — a strategic trade and energy corridor linking China to Europe via Central Asia and long regarded as part of Moscow’s sphere of influence.

The diplomatic momentum builds on US President Donald Trump’s hosting of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the White House in August, where the sides signed a preliminary peace agreement aimed at ending decades of conflict over Karabakh. The accord includes provisions for opening the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity,” a transport corridor connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory.

Financial markets have responded positively. The yield on Armenia’s dollar-denominated bond due in 2031 fell by four basis points to its lowest level in roughly three months.

The civil nuclear agreement establishes a legal framework enabling US companies to export nuclear technology to Armenia and compete to replace the aging Metsamor nuclear power plant, which provides approximately 40 percent of electricity in the country of about three million people.

Metsamor is currently operated by Russia’s state-owned Rosatom Corp., which supplies the plant’s nuclear fuel. Ahead of Vance’s visit, Rosatom officials met Armenian leaders in Moscow, offering what they described as “comprehensive cooperation” on the development of new nuclear capacity.

The artificial intelligence initiative, developed through a partnership between US-registered Firebird Inc. and Nvidia Corp., is set to expand to around 50,000 GPUs by the end of 2026, utilizing Nvidia’s next-generation GB300 systems. Firebird, founded by Armenian entrepreneurs, intends to direct the majority of the computing capacity toward global clients, positioning Armenia as a competitive AI export platform.

The announcements provide a timely boost to Prime Minister Pashinyan ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7. In May, he is expected to host dozens of political leaders in Yerevan for the European Political Community summit.

Collectively, the prospective $13 billion in projects would far exceed previous foreign investment inflows into Armenia, aligning with the government’s ambition to anchor US capital and advanced technology in strategic sectors — even if the full scope of the commitments does not ultimately materialize.

“When companies are deciding to invest billions of dollars in Armenia, it creates ideas for others as well,” said Firebird co-founder Alexander Yesayan. “Many people knew Armenia, but they weren’t thinking about investments of this size. This changes that.”

By Vafa Guliyeva