Media: US-China oil trade nears zero as tariff war escalates

The flow of US crude oil to China is expected to near zero, marking a dramatic shift in trade between the world’s two largest economies as their ongoing trade war intensifies.

After years of rising oil shipments from the United States to China, recent data reveals a sharp decline in 2025, exacerbated by successive rounds of tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, compounded by Beijing’s retaliatory moves, Caliber.Az reports citing foreign media.

Oil exports from the US to China accounted for a minimal 1 per cent of China’s total crude imports during the early months of 2025, according to analytics firm Vortexa Ltd. However, the sharp decrease in these flows is emblematic of a broader collapse in trade relations between the two superpowers.

With China now imposing an 84 per cent tariff on US goods, including crude oil, the cost of American crude has skyrocketed.

“With China imposing 84 per cent tariffs on goods from the US, the cost of US crude would be almost double—$51 a barrel more expensive, based on $61 WTI,” noted Ivan Mathews, head of APAC analysis for Vortexa.

“This makes running US crude uneconomical for Chinese refiners,” he added, further predicting that US crude imports to China will “likely dwindle to zero in the coming months if the current tariff levels stay.”

The immediate impact has seen US crude finding alternative buyers in Asia. Indian refiners have been among those purchasing US oil cargoes, taking advantage of the price differential, and Japanese oil processors have followed suit. In contrast, China is expected to fill the supply gap by sourcing crude from other Middle Eastern producers like Oman and the United Arab Emirates, while also likely increasing its imports from Iran and Russia—countries with which it has been seeking to bolster ties amidst the ongoing trade friction with the US.

The declining trade in oil reflects the broader strain in US-China relations, with both sides imposing heavy tariffs on one another in a tit-for-tat escalation that continues to reshape global trade dynamics.

By Vafa Guliyeva