NYT: US-European plan aims to deter future Russian attacks on Ukraine

US and European officials have drafted a peace plan intended to deter future Russian attacks on Ukraine by strengthening Kyiv’s military, deploying European forces inside the country and expanding the use of American intelligence, officials familiar with the proposal stated.

American and European diplomats meeting with Ukraine’s leaders in Berlin over the past two days have largely signed off on two documents outlining security guarantees, the officials said. The documents are meant to underpin a broader agreement aimed at securing a cease-fire in the nearly four-year-old war and to persuade Ukraine to concede territory and abandon its bid for formal NATO membership, The New York Times reports.

“We are seeing real and concrete progress,” Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said on December 16. “That progress is made possible thanks to the alignment between Ukraine, Europe and the United States.”

Despite the momentum, a cease-fire appears distant. Russia is not participating in the talks, and any deal would require major concessions from either President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine or President Vladimir Putin of Russia. Zelenskyy has voiced concerns, particularly over territorial concessions, while Putin has shown no flexibility. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said Moscow demands that Ukraine cede the remaining parts of the Donbas region and will not accept NATO-country troops in Ukraine.

US officials acknowledged the territorial issue as a key obstacle but said they believe Putin could eventually accept European forces operating in Ukraine outside a NATO framework.

European officials said cooperation with American negotiators and President Trump has improved in recent months, though some leaders remain cautious. “It sounded very promising…that the Americans are ready to give guarantees — but it would be an exaggeration if I said that we know everything about the concrete details,” said Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk.

The first document outlines broad principles resembling NATO’s Article 5 mutual-defence pledge. The second, a detailed military-to-military operating document, specifies how US and European forces would work with Ukraine’s military to deter and respond to future Russian incursions.

A central element is rebuilding Ukraine’s forces to a peacetime level of about 800,000 troops, down from nearly 900,000 during the war, with modern training and equipment. European leaders said this would require “sustained and significant support.”

The plan also envisions a Europe-led force operating inside Ukraine, primarily in the west, to help secure air and sea space. “Each country already understands its role,” Zelensky said. “Some are ready to provide only intelligence, others are ready to provide troops in Ukraine — boots on the ground. We have this in the document.”

The United States would not deploy troops but would lead cease-fire monitoring, intelligence sharing and verification mechanisms, including detecting potential Russian “false flag” operations.

Officials said the guarantees would be legally binding. Zelenskyy said the documents could be finalized within days, after which US officials would convey them to Russia and resume talks with Ukrainian negotiators, possibly this weekend.

By Vafa Guliyeva