Moscow’s first African naval base: Game changer in global geopolitics?

Russia’s ambitions to expand its influence in Africa have long been evident, but they have intensified following the fall of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime last December.

With the possibility of losing its stronghold in the Mediterranean, Moscow has renewed its focus on securing a strategic foothold on the African continent.

Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Yousef Ahmed al-Sharif recently confirmed, according to Al Arabiya, that Khartoum and Moscow have reached an agreement to establish a Russian naval base in Sudan, Caliber.Az reports.

He emphasized that, after years of delay, Russia’s plan to set up its first naval base in Africa is now moving forward.

If implemented, the deal would place Russia among the world’s major military powers in the region, joining the US and China, both of which have military bases in Djibouti. This would also provide Moscow with access to the Red Sea, a key global trade route linking the Suez Canal to the Indian Ocean, through which approximately 12% of the world’s trade flows.

For years, Russia has sought to establish a military presence along Sudan’s 853-kilometer Red Sea coastline, particularly near Port Sudan. While past attempts have stalled, its renewed push for a base can be attributed to three key factors:

1. Great Power Aspirations
   Russia has historically linked its presence in the Red Sea to its status as a major power. During the Soviet era, Moscow maintained a geopolitical presence in the region, and its current efforts reflect a desire to restore that influence. The idea of reclaiming a foothold in the Red Sea resonates with Russia’s foreign policy establishment, which continues to view the Soviet Union’s former global reach as an important legacy.

2. Strategic Location Near Global Chokepoints
   The Red Sea base would provide Russia with proximity to critical maritime routes, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Suez Canal, and the Eastern Mediterranean. These areas are essential for projecting military power, particularly the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which is a vital passage for 6.2 million barrels of oil per day.

3. Indian Ocean Security Interests
   Russia has also increased its focus on the Indian Ocean in recent years. Moscow identified the region as a "priority area" in its 2015 maritime strategy and has repeatedly highlighted piracy threats in subsequent reports, such as its 2017 maritime security assessment. Establishing a base in Sudan would help Russia extend its military and naval reach into this strategically significant region.

Sudan first proposed hosting a Russian naval base in 2017, when then-President Omar al-Bashir visited Sochi. The two countries eventually signed an agreement in 2020, allowing Russia to station up to four warships, including nuclear-powered vessels, in Sudan for 25 years.

The draft agreement specified that the base would serve logistical purposes and be "defensive in nature," with assurances that it would not be directed against other countries. However, disagreements over the terms of the deal and shifting political dynamics in Sudan slowed its progress.

The ongoing war between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which erupted in April 2023, has further complicated Russia’s position in the country. While the Wagner Group, Russia’s paramilitary organization, has provided support to the RSF, the Kremlin has reportedly pledged its support to the Sudanese army at this stage. These conflicting alliances have created tensions between Moscow and Khartoum, delaying the finalization of the naval base agreement.

By Tamilla Hasanova