Moscow turns abroad for manpower as casualties climb

At the Munich Security Conference, held on February 13–15, UK Defence Secretary John Healey said Russia is increasingly turning to foreign fighters as it struggles to replenish mounting battlefield losses in Ukraine. Speaking to Bloomberg News on the sidelines of the conference, Healey relayed comments made earlier in the week by Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov to European counterparts. According to Fedorov, over the past two months, Ukrainian forces have inflicted more casualties on Russia than the Kremlin has been able to recruit.

As a result, Healey said, Moscow has grown more dependent on thousands of foreign recruits, including individuals from India, Pakistan, Nepal, Cuba, Nigeria, and Senegal. He added that many are allegedly enlisted under misleading promises or pressured into service without fully understanding they will be sent to the front lines in Ukraine. Healey estimated that around 17,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to support Russia’s war effort.

Fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces remains concentrated along the 1,200-kilometre (746-mile) front line, with relatively little territorial change since the first year of the nearly four-year conflict. Russia’s continued heavy losses challenge the Kremlin’s narrative — at times echoed by Donald Trump — that Moscow’s victory is unavoidable.

Fedorov has set a goal of increasing Russian losses to 50,000 per month by the summer. Western officials suggest that at such levels, Russian President Vladimir Putin would struggle to replenish forces without resorting to another mobilisation drive. That option remains politically sensitive. Putin has avoided repeating the 2022 mobilisation of 300,000 reservists, which led hundreds of thousands of Russians to flee the country and fueled domestic dissatisfaction with the war.

According to reporting by Bloomberg News last week, Russia suffered roughly 9,000 more battlefield losses in January than it was able to replace. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that 30,000 Russian personnel were killed in action in January alone. Speaking Saturday at the Munich conference, Zelenskiy remarked that while Putin may not be immediately concerned about these figures, there is a threshold at which the Kremlin will begin to feel the strain.

Russia does not publish official casualty figures, and Putin, along with senior military leaders have maintained that Russian fatalities are significantly lower than Ukraine’s. However, some Russian military bloggers have presented a contrasting picture, criticising what they describe as heavy losses caused by commanders ordering repeated assaults on fortified Ukrainian positions.

Western officials estimate that Russia sustained approximately 415,000 casualties — including both killed and wounded — last year, slightly below the 430,000 recorded in 2024, bringing the total since the start of the war to more than 1.2 million. In December alone, casualty rates averaged 1,130 per day and reached as many as 35,000 for the month. Higher losses have been linked to increasingly effective Ukrainian drone operations.

Despite these losses, Russian forces have made incremental advances in parts of eastern Ukraine, including near the cities of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in the Donetsk region. They have also continued sustained missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, leaving large areas without heat or water during freezing winter conditions.

Western officials assess that Russia is likely capable of maintaining combat operations through 2026, supported by ongoing recruitment, domestic industrial output, and backing from countries such as China. Ukraine’s top military commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said last week that expanded drone use has widened the combat zone along the front by 15 to 20 kilometres.

Healey emphasised that Ukraine remains under severe pressure, both along the front line and in its cities, but noted that Ukrainian forces are regaining some territory and settlements. In certain sectors, he said, Russian casualty rates have risen from roughly six per Ukrainian loss to as high as 25 to one. Western officials believe this widening disparity — aided by increased drone deliveries to Ukraine — is crucial to intensifying pressure on Russia’s campaign.

Although Russia appears to have met or exceeded its recruitment targets, Ukrainian officials say the number of Russian troops deployed at the front has remained steady for six months at about 712,000, indicating that new recruits are largely replacing losses rather than expanding the force.

“Putin likes to project the image of steady and inevitable progress,” Healey said, “but he is in a weaker position than before and increasingly dependent on foreign fighters.”

By Tamilla Hasanova