NI: Poland and Ukraine at the heart of nuclear tensions

As the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe continues to intensify, discussions about the potential for nuclear escalation have resurfaced, particularly with Poland and Ukraine at the centre.

The evolving nuclear discourse follows Russia’s recent decision to move advanced weapons, including hypersonic missiles, into Belarus, which has escalated tensions with its neighbours, Caliber.Az reports via The National Interest (NI).

Last year, Poland’s former right-wing government raised the possibility of the country becoming a nuclear weapons-sharing state within NATO. This proposition was in direct response to Moscow’s threats to station intermediate-range ballistic missiles in Belarus.

Poland indicated its readiness to make its fleet of US-made F-35 Lightning II warplanes capable of carrying American B-61 nuclear bombs, reinforcing its commitment to NATO’s collective security. The current left-wing government, while differing politically, shares its predecessor’s staunch opposition to Russian expansionism, especially given recent events such as Russia’s deployment of the Oreshnik hypersonic weapon.

The Oreshnik, a nuclear-capable missile, was recently used by Russia to target the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, signalling Moscow’s increasingly aggressive stance. In response, NATO members, particularly Poland, find themselves caught between deterrence and escalation, as discussions on nuclear weapons proliferation gain momentum.

Furthermore, the prospect of Ukraine obtaining nuclear capabilities is also becoming a point of focus, despite the country’s non-NATO status. Ukraine has repeatedly voiced interest in regaining or acquiring nuclear weapons, a notion that remains controversial and highly unlikely, yet cannot be dismissed entirely given recent military developments.

The B-61 nuclear bomb, a long-time staple of NATO’s defence strategy, has emerged as a key option in this nuclear arms race. With its adjustable yield ranging from 0.3 kilotons to 360 kilotons, the B-61 is considered one of the most versatile and effective weapons in NATO’s arsenal. It can be deployed by several platforms, including the F-35, F-15E, and B-2 Spirit bomber.

Despite its strategic value, the B-61’s potential deployment in Eastern Europe would further heighten tensions, particularly as Russia has voiced opposition to NATO’s nuclear presence in its sphere of influence.

Poland, as a NATO member, has a legitimate claim to participate in the alliance’s nuclear weapons-sharing programme. However, such a move would undoubtedly escalate the conflict, making a peaceful resolution between Russia and the West over Ukraine increasingly improbable.

The introduction of nuclear weapons into this volatile region would not only destabilize the region but also increase the risk of further conflict. As the situation evolves, the question remains: how far is NATO willing to go in its efforts to deter Russian aggression?

By Aghakazim Guliyev