Reuters: Russian oil exports to India expected to rise in September

Russian oil exports to India are set to increase in September as producers lower prices to sell more crude, following damage to Russian refineries caused by Ukrainian drone strikes on the country’s energy infrastructure.

Traders say that Indian refiners, benefiting from discounted Russian crude, are expected to raise purchases despite rising geopolitical tensions, Caliber.Az reports, citing exclusive material by Reuters.

India has emerged as the largest buyer of Russian oil, displaced by Western sanctions imposed after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, allowing Indian refiners to capitalise on cheaper supplies. However, the move has drawn condemnation from the U.S. government under President Donald Trump, which on August 27 increased tariffs on Indian imports to 50 per cent.

New Delhi is attempting to resolve the issue through negotiations, while Prime Minister Narendra Modi has undertaken a diplomatic tour, including meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin, to strengthen ties.

U.S. officials have accused India of profiting from discounted Russian oil, while Indian authorities argue that the West practices double standards, as the EU and U.S. continue purchasing billions of dollars’ worth of Russian goods. The Indian oil ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Traders report that Indian refiners are likely to increase Russian oil purchases in September by 10–20 per cent from August levels, equating to roughly 150,000–300,000 barrels per day. Three trading sources, citing preliminary purchase data, spoke on condition of anonymity. The two largest buyers of Russian crude in India, Reliance and Nayara Energy (majority Russian-owned), did not provide comment.

The increase in Russian crude exports is partly due to planned and unplanned refinery outages, which have reduced Russia’s domestic refining capacity. Ukraine has reportedly attacked 10 Russian refineries in recent days, temporarily taking offline as much as 17 per cent of the country’s refining capacity.

In the first 20 days of August, India imported 1.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude, unchanged from July but slightly below the 1.6 million bpd average for January–June, according to Vortexa analysts. These imports cover approximately 40 per cent of India’s oil needs, representing around 1.5 per cent of global supply. China and Türkiye are also major buyers of Russian crude.

Over recent years, India’s increasing reliance on Russian oil has reduced its dependence on more expensive OPEC supplies, though OPEC’s share in India edged up in 2024 after an eight-year decline. Russian exporters are offering Urals crude for September loading at discounts of $2–$3 per barrel against Brent, wider than the $1.50 per barrel discount seen in August, the narrowest since 2022.

The full impact of U.S. tariffs and Western sanctions may only become apparent with cargoes arriving in India in October. Meanwhile, the EU has tightened its price cap to $47.60 per barrel from September 2, 15 per cent below the Russian crude market price, restricting access to Western services for cargoes sold above this threshold and complicating Russian oil sales later this year.

By Tamilla Hasanova