Tusk’s bloc on course for narrow Sejm majority, poll shows

A new IBRiS poll for Rzeczpospolita suggests that Donald Tusk’s governing Civic Coalition and its left-wing partner could secure a narrow majority in Poland’s Sejm if elections were held today.

The survey puts the Civic Coalition on 32 per cent support, while Law and Justice stands at 23.2 per cent.

The Konfederacja follows with 12 per cent, as smaller parties continue to fragment the vote.

Under the projection, the Left would win 8.7 per cent, while Konfederacja Korony Polskiej would take 7.9 per cent. The Polish People’s Party would fall short of the five per cent threshold at 4.4 per cent, alongside Poland 2050 on 0.5 per cent. The Razem party would reach 4 per cent.

According to political analyst Jarosław Flis, the combined seat projection for the Civic Coalition and the Left reaches 232 seats, enough for a slim parliamentary majority in the 460-seat chamber.

The result, if confirmed at the ballot box, would allow Tusk’s bloc to govern without additional coalition partners, although analysts caution that the margin remains fragile and dependent on small-party performance.

Law and Justice continues to face competition from rival right-wing formations, while internal tensions and leadership debates persist within the party.

Overall, the poll indicates a closely balanced political landscape, with the governing camp holding a potential advantage, but no decisive lead ahead of the next parliamentary election.

By Aghakazim Guliyev