Two years since Azerbaijan’s Victory Day Revival despite missing peace

On November 8, 2022, Azerbaijan marks the second anniversary of its victory over Armenia in the Karabakh region, nearly after three decades of illegal occupation. The triumph in the second-largest Armenia-Azerbaijan war in the latter’s internationally recognized region is of symbolic importance for Azerbaijanis since it heralded the great return to ancestral lands following years of forcible separation and sorrow.

The anti-Azerbaijan sentiments in Armenia spawned what was the most protracted conflict in the post-Soviet region in the mid of 1980s, eventually transforming it into a full-scale war from 1991-1994. An all-out military aggression of Armenia against Azerbaijan ensued amidst the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, drawing the two newly independent countries into the battlefield. The bloody war claimed the lives of more than 30,000 Azerbaijanis and displaced one million more. Since the end of the war, nearly 4,000 Azerbaijanis were reported missing. Azerbaijan lost control over 20 per cent of its sovereign territory in the wake of the hostilities.

Throughout the roughly 30-year-long illegal occupation period, Azerbaijan demanded the restoration of its international borders, referring to the principles of international law and the UN-adopted four resolutions. The indifference of global powers and regional actors regarding resolving the frozen conflict in Karabakh and its devastating consequences for the region's stability enabled Armenia to continue the illegal occupation for three decades.

The unfulfillment of Azerbaijan’s fair demands by Armenia, the lack of international pressure on Yerevan, and the shuttle mediation diplomacy spearheaded by the OSCE Minsk Group, co-chaired by the US, Russia, and France failed to fetch a political solution, ultimately leading to gradual looming of war clouds over the two neighbouring nations.

The “new war for new lands” doctrine of the Armenian authorities and eventual provocations on the interstate border in July 2020 dashed almost all hopes for a peaceful political end to the conflict. Then, a general and a major, as well as ten other servicemen of the Azerbaijani army were killed during the short but bloody skirmishes by the Armenian military.

On September 27, 2020, the decades-old conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan ultimately spiralled after Armenia’s forces deployed in the occupied Azerbaijani lands shelled military positions and civilian settlements of Azerbaijan. During the counter-attack operations that lasted 44 days, Azerbaijani forces liberated over 300 settlements, including the cities of Jabrayil, Fuzuli, Zangilan, Gubadli, and Shusha, from nearly 30-year-long illegal Armenian occupation. The war ended in a tripartite statement signed on November 10, 2020, by Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia. Under the statement, Armenia also returned the occupied Aghdam, Kalbajar, and Lachin districts to Azerbaijan by December 1. The document mandated Russia to deploy a temporary peacekeeping mission in the parts of the Karabakh region settled by the partial Armenian population.

Shortly after the war, the Azerbaijani authorities voiced readiness and determination to launch negotiations with Armenia that would ultimately bring the long-awaited peace to the region. In February 2022, Baku submitted a proposal containing five basic principles to Armenia. These principles highlight the key issues related to the peace negotiations between the two countries, including mutual recognition of respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity, inviolability of internationally recognized borders; mutual confirmation of the absence of territorial claims against each other; obligation to refrain in interstate relations from undermining the security of each other; delimitation and demarcation of the state border; and unblocking of the transportation and other communications.

However, the efforts aimed at achieving long and sustainable peace between the two countries remained dead in the water. Negotiations mediated by Russia and the European Union could not be translated into actions from words largely due to the reluctance of Armenia to address its obligations under the tripartite statements signed in November 2020 and January 2021, including the unblocking of transport communications and withdrawal of the armed groups from Karabakh.

Furthermore, Armenian authorities did not abandon their retrospective calls for a so-called status for Karabakh Armenians within the borders of Azerbaijan, whom the Azerbaijani government recognizes as its citizens and pledges to ensure necessary fundamental rights and security. The peace negotiations were also torpedoed several times due to surprise statements of Armenian officials and demands to bring back the OSCE Minsk Group, the unsuccessful format of the resolution of the Karabakh issue for the last 25 years. Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly said that the Minsk Group could not be back on track given its negative reputation as a mediation structure.

Meanwhile, one of the main obstacles to helping the region get completely rid of the traces of war remains is landmines contaminating the once-occupied lands of Azerbaijan. With no precise maps of minefields at hand, the Azerbaijani government has been extensively conducting mine action in those lands through national agencies and international cooperation. Armenia shared a handful of these maps, which, according to Baku, is just 25 per cent precise in the light of locating nearly one million death traps carpeting the liberated lands. In the post-war period, a total of over 260 Azerbaijani citizens lost their lives or were severely injured in mine blasts.

Today, on the second anniversary of Victory Day, Azerbaijan largely promotes the idea of post-conflict reconstruction and reconciliation, publicly stating that the ethnic Armenia community of Karabakh could easily coexist peacefully alongside the Azerbaijani community amid the start of the return of former Azerbaijani IDPs. Baku is convinced that both communities could benefit from the ongoing rebuilding and revival process, vowing more comfortable life and economic opportunities in the next few years.

Currently, massive reconstruction and restoration campaigns could be seen almost in every corner of the liberated lands from Kalbajar to Lachin, Aghdam, Fuzuli, Zangilan, Shusha and others. In the post-war period, the Azerbaijani government allocated nearly $3 billion from the state budget for the reconstruction of these territories. The infrastructure of the war-torn lands, including socio-economic hubs, highways, power grids, residential localities and more is being rebuilt almost from the scratch. The first group of the former IDPs have already been relocated to the Zangilan district. And more is and will be done since President Aliyev personally pledged “to turn the war-torn lands into paradise”.