Ukraine signs off on its first bilateral security deal with the UK

Ukraine signed off on its first bilateral security deal with a Western power during UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s first trip to Kyiv on January 12.

The US also promised Ukraine a £2.5bn ($3.2bn) of military aid in a speech to the Rada that includes air defence equipment, anti-tank weapons, long-range missiles, and extensive training for Ukrainian soldiers. The deal is the largest assistance package from the UK since the beginning of the full-scale war almost two years ago, Intellinews reported on January 15.

The funds will also cover the procurement and production of thousands of military drones, constituting the "largest ever commitment of drones," with at least £200mn dedicated to this initiative.

In addition to the aid package, Sunak and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signed a security cooperation deal, part of the security assurances outlined by the G7 in July.

“The Ukraine-UK security agreement provides us with confidence as we defend ourselves against Russian aggression and lays the groundwork for strong security positions until Ukraine joins NATO,” Zelenskiy said.

“The United Kingdom is the first country with which we have reached such a security agreement. We will keep working with other partners to ensure the development of our security. We are making Ukraine stronger step by step,” he added. “Now we will work with our international partners on similar agreements.” 

The commitment is the first long-term security deal signed with a western power. All the aid delivered so far has been on an ad hoc basis. The longest-term promise of aid is the EU’s four-year €50bn military and financial aid package, but that has become snarled in internal wrangling.

The UK deal spans ten years, covering cooperation in military and maritime security, defence industry, protection of critical infrastructure, and cybersecurity. However, the security deal falls short of committing British troops to Ukraine to help defend the country against Russia’s aggression.

The security deal with the UK is a step forward as the West has been reluctant to offer Ukraine comprehensive security deals, something that Kyiv has been calling for in lieu of Nato membership.

Zelenskiy called the bilateral security agreement "unprecedented" and marks January 12 as a “historic day” for Ukraine. London has also pledged economic and humanitarian assistance and vowed to support Ukraine with more military supplies in case of future Russian aggression.

Zelenskiy is reported negating similar security deals with another five Western partners as the expectations of a long war build. The Ukrainian delegation to the Gomel peace talks in Belarus during the first month of the war first suggested that Ukraine could accept a return to neutrality and abandon its Nato aspirations if it were offered bilateral security deals with the West. However, the idea was not taken up.

But now the momentum is building to do the deals. French President Emmanuel Macron brought the idea up again during the last Nato summit last July, but no action was taken.

A total of nine security deals are currently being discussed, according to presidential chief-of-staff Andriy Yermak, who is in Bucharest to negotiate a similar deal with Julian Fota, Romania’s state secretary of Foreign Affairs Ministry, participated in the discussions. Romania is the ninth country engaging in security bilateral talks with Ukraine, the statement said.

Other security deal negotiations have been dragging on since last year. Ukraine was set to begin talks on a deal with the US last July at the time of the Nato summit, but those have not reached a conclusion. Likewise, Ukraine and Germany began bilateral negotiations on potential security guarantees on November 17 which have also gone nowhere.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been reluctant to do a deal, saying the time for new security deals would be after the war with Russia is over. Discussions with Japan, France and Canada are also ongoing.

Separately, Deputy Secretary General of NATO, Mircea Geoană, said the Alliance expects the conflict to last at least two more years as neither side shows an ability to win a decisive victory.

At the same time, Geoană noted that there is no risk of Ukraine's defeat because Russia is losing 300 soldiers a day, thousands of armoured vehicles, and hundreds of planes. “They are not in a better situation," the official explained.

He also said that the Ukrainians have managed to recapture 50% of the territory that was occupied by the Russians immediately following the full-scale invasion.

The Deputy Secretary General of NATO also expressed confidence that the US Congress will approve new financial assistance to Kyiv soon. In general, Geoană does not see a problem with money but in the industrial capacity of Western countries, because Europe did not anticipate a conflict of this scale after the end of the Cold War.