US pushes new multilateral nuclear framework as New START lapses

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called for a transition to a multilateral framework for nuclear arms control following the expiration of the New START (START-3) treaty, arguing that traditional bilateral agreements no longer reflect today’s strategic realities.

Speaking in Geneva, Rubio said the end of New START marks not the beginning of a new nuclear arms race, but the need for a fundamentally new approach to arms control. He noted that Russia had effectively stopped implementing the treaty in 2023 after repeatedly violating its provisions, leaving the United States with the choice of either unilaterally adhering to its constraints or acknowledging that “a new era requires a new approach.”

Rubio emphasized that the strategic environment has changed significantly since New START entered into force, particularly due to China’s rapid and opaque expansion of its nuclear arsenal. According to US estimates cited by the secretary, China has increased its stockpile from the low 200s in 2020 to more than 600 warheads and is on track to exceed 1,000 by 2030.

“An arms control arrangement that does not account for China’s build-up, which Russia is supporting, will undoubtedly leave the United States and our allies less safe,” Rubio said, adding that future agreements must reflect the reality that Washington now faces not one, but two nuclear peers.

Rubio underscored that President Donald Trump has been “clear, consistent, and unequivocal” that future arms control must address both Russian and Chinese nuclear arsenals. The US proposal presented in Geneva, he said, reflects three core principles outlined by the president.

First, arms control can no longer remain a bilateral issue between the United States and Russia, with China bearing a particular responsibility for ensuring strategic stability. Second, the United States will not accept agreements that undermine its security or overlook noncompliance “for arms control’s sake.” Third, Washington will negotiate from a position of strength, maintaining a “robust, credible, and modernized nuclear deterrent” while pursuing reductions in nuclear threats.

Rubio acknowledged that negotiating a multilateral arms control framework will be complex and time-consuming, noting that past agreements took years to conclude and were negotiated between only two powers. However, he argued that difficulty should not deter efforts to reduce global nuclear risks.

“No one understands that difficult deals are often the only ones worth having more than President Trump,” Rubio said, pointing to the president’s repeated warnings about the destructive power of nuclear weapons and his stated desire to reduce their role in global security.

“Today in Geneva,” Rubio concluded, “we are taking the first steps into a future where the global nuclear threat is reduced in reality, not merely on paper.”

By Vafa Guliyeva