When will North Korea test its nuclear weapon? Explainer by The Jerusalem Post

Caliber.Az reprints an explainer by The Jerusalem Post on the possible test of a nuclear weapon by North Korea and its global implications.

North Korea's recent flurry of missile launches has raised expectations that it could soon test a nuclear device for the first time since 2017.

North Korea has finished all technical preparations for a new test in the underground tunnels at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test site, which has been shuttered since 2018, leaving the question of timing in the hands of leader Kim Jong Un, South Korean officials have said.

Here is what foreign officials and analysts have said about when and why North Korea might resume testing, what kind of device it could detonate, and what the international reaction may be.

When will they test?

Only North Korea knows. And observers say even within the country there is a good chance that only Kim or those around him have any idea of the exact timing.

North Korea is a particularly difficult target for the US and other foreign spies, who have been caught off guard before by some of the country's advances, including its test of a suspected hydrogen bomb and launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of striking as far as the United States, both in 2017.

Why and what would they test?

If North Korea resumes nuclear testing, it could include the development of smaller warheads meant for battlefield use - not attacking cities - and designed to fit on short-range missiles such as the one tested last weekend, analysts said.

The most recent flurry of missile tests involved units meant to operate tactical nuclear weapons, according to North Korean state media.

Smaller devices could also allow North Korea to fit multiple warheads on one ICBM, allowing a single missile to strike several targets and complicate missile defence.

North Korea has also said it wants to deploy much larger nuclear weapons, so analysts say that could be in the works.

"They've only conducted a pretty limited number of nuclear tests," said Vann Van Diepen, a former Korea expert with the US government who now works with the 38 North projects.

"And any weapons developer... would want to have a lot more tests under their belt to have the highest possible confidence that these weapons are going to work."

Kim is also seeking to legitimatize his weapons program, and may use a test to increase pressure on Washington while its hands are full with the war in Ukraine and other crises, the Western military official said.

What would the reaction be?

The United States and its allies in Asia have vowed that a resumption of nuclear testing "would be met with a strong and resolute whole-of-government response," but have not elaborated. Missile tests have been met with unilateral sanctions and displays of military force, including joint drills and the deployment of a US aircraft carrier.

Previous North Korea nuclear tests also incurred United Nations Security Council resolutions that imposed sanctions, backed at the time by China and Russia.

Those two countries have blocked more recent attempts to impose new security council resolutions, however.

Analysts say neither Beijing nor Moscow is likely to welcome a new test, but that they are unlikely to back any major new punishments.

"They probably wouldn't be keen on it. But I think that's less of an issue for them now than it was five or 10 years ago given because of the nature of their relationship with the US," Van Diepen said.