Which EU member states would be most affected by US trade policy?

As the potential for a 10 per cent tariff on all EU goods exported to the US looms, it's important to assess which European countries would be most affected by such a move, Euronews highlights. 

"They [EU countries] don't take our cars. They don't take our farm products. They sell millions and millions of cars in the United States. No, no, no, they are going to have to pay a big price," said Donald Trump, the Republican US presidential candidate, shortly before the election.

After his victory, the EU is now evaluating its options in response to the proposed 10 per cent tariff on all EU goods exported to the US—one of the key proposals in Trump’s 2024 re-election campaign. Which EU countries would be most impacted by this potential tariff? Which European nations have the largest share of their exports going to the US? And what percentage of each EU country's exports are destined for the US? Euronews Business has examined the potential effects of Trump's proposed tariffs, focusing on the value of goods exported to the US by various EU nations.

In 2023, Germany was the largest exporter, sending 157.7 billion euros worth of goods to the US, according to Eurostat. Italy and Ireland followed with exports valued at 67.3 billion euros and 51.6 billion euros, respectively. Together, these three countries accounted for 55 per cent of the EU’s total exports to the US. Other notable exporters included France (43.9 billion euros), the Netherlands (40.5 billion euros), Belgium (31.3 billion euros), and Spain (18.9 billion euros). Examining the share of the US in each EU country's extra-EU exports, as well as the US's share in total goods exports, reveals the potential risks for individual nations—even for those with smaller overall export volumes. 

"Extra-EU" refers to trade with countries outside the EU, encompassing all global transactions except those within the EU itself. In 2023, Ireland had the highest proportion of exports to the US among EU countries, with 45.8 per cent of its extra-EU exports going to the US—meaning nearly half of Ireland's exports outside the EU were directed to the US. Seven other EU countries also had significant shares of 20 per cent or more, ranging from 20 per cent to 26 per cent. These nations included Finland, Austria, Portugal, Italy, Germany, Slovakia, and Sweden. Among the EU's top four economies, Spain had the lowest share of exports to the US, at 13 per cent, followed by France at 16 per cent. In seven EU countries, this share was less than 10 per cent, including Slovenia, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Latvia, Croatia, Romania, and Greece. Ireland is by far the EU country most reliant on the US market. 

In 2023, over a quarter (26.6 per cent) of all Irish goods exports were directed to the US, according to Eurostat. This makes Ireland a clear outlier in terms of dependence on the US. Finland, Italy, and Germany followed, with 11.1 per cent, 10.7 per cent, and 9.9 per cent of their total goods exports going to the US, respectively. Among the EU's top four economies, France's exports to the US accounted for 7.3 per cent, while Spain's stood at 4.8 per cent. The US also played a significant role in exports from Nordic countries. In addition to Finland (11.1 per cent), Sweden (8.9 per cent) and Denmark (8.3 per cent) ranked fifth and sixth among EU countries in terms of export share to the US. Other EU countries with a share of exports to the US above 5 per cent included Austria (7.1 per cent), Portugal (6.8 per cent), and Belgium (6.3 per cent). 

In total, the share of exports to the US exceeded 5 per cent in 10 EU countries. Therefore, a potential 10 per cent tariff on all EU goods exported to the US would significantly impact not just Ireland, Germany, and Italy, but a number of other EU countries as well.

By Naila Huseynova