Russian analyst outlines five possible scenarios for settling Garabagh issue
POLITICS 20 September 2023 - 11:16
Anadolu speaks to Sergey Markov, a former adviser to Russian President Putin, about the possible course of events in the Garabagh region. Caliber.Az reprints the interview.
There are at least five possible scenarios that might play out in the Garabagh region of Azerbaijan, where tensions have recently been escalating, according to a Russian political analyst.
“I see five possible scenarios under which the situation in Garabagh may develop – the Armenian unrealistic, inertial, ideal, compromise and the Armenian radical,” Sergey Markov, director of the Institute of Political Studies, a Moscow-based think tank, and a former adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, told Anadolu.
The Armenian leadership is fighting for an unrealistic option according to which Yerevan de jure recognizes Garabagh as Azerbaijani territory, but de facto the Armenian community of the region preserves its autonomy, he said.
In this scenario, international structures serve as guarantors of autonomy, including the EU and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), in which France, currently Armenia’s most important ally, plays a decisive role, he noted.
“This option is not feasible for several reasons. Firstly, because Azerbaijan is much stronger than Armenia, why should it concede to Armenia?
“Secondly, because Armenia’s allies like France are allies more in words, even if these words sometimes take the form of resolutions. But this ally will not provide Armenia with any serious economic assistance, let alone any military help.
“And the third most fundamental reason is that Azerbaijan already has a very negative experience of the autonomy of the Armenian community of Garabagh. The Armenian community of Garabagh cruelly abused this autonomy before. It rebelled, started a war, killed many people, and expelled many Azerbaijanis,” he said.
Azerbaijan knows from its own historical experience that the Armenian community of Garabagh does not know how to use the rights of autonomy, Markov stressed.
Relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia have been tense since 1991, when the Armenian military occupied Nagorno-Karabakh, a territory internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, and seven adjacent regions.
In the fall of 2020, Azerbaijan liberated several cities, villages and settlements from Armenian occupation during 44 days of clashes. The war ended with a Russia-brokered cease-fire.
Tensions between the two nations, however, continue despite ongoing talks over a long-term peace agreement.
Most probable and ideal scenario
According to Markov, the “most probable” scenario is the “inertial” one, according to which disputes and discussions will continue, but in some two-and-a-half years, the Sochi agreement on the deployment of the Russian peacekeeping mission in Garabagh will end, the contingent will leave the region, and the Azerbaijani army will “calmly enter the area.”
“The Azerbaijani president may reward some Russian peacekeepers for something, but will not extend the term of the agreements on the deployment of the peacekeeping mission because Armenia does not abide by them,” he said.
In this case, there will be no serious clashes, some rearguard skirmishes are possible, but to a minimum extent, he said.
“I see this basic inertial option as the most probable,” he noted.
It would be “ideal” if Armenia's leadership, realizing its responsibility to the world and the people, could find the willpower and sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan, Markov said.
“This means Yerevan recognizes that all the laws of Azerbaijan apply in Garabagh and the security of the Armenian community of Garabagh is ensured in accordance with the constitution of Azerbaijan, as is the security of other peoples living on the territory of the country.
“The probability of this option is very low, because (Armenian Prime Minister Nikol) Pashinyan is afraid that in this case, he will be overthrown, maybe some radical revanchists may even demand to shoot him,” he said.
The ideal scenario may be softened, turned into a compromise one, suggesting the gradual transfer of control to Azerbaijan and taking the measures on integration of the Garabagh community into the Azerbaijani society and statehood, he said.
"Armenian radical scenario"
Meanwhile, Yerevan may attempt the implementation of the “Armenian radical scenario,” under which it withdraws from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), breaks ties with Russia, and may even sign an agreement with NATO under which the alliance’s forces and a US military base are deployed on its territory, Markov said.
“This option now seems absolutely fantastic, impossible, but I have no doubt that the Armenian leadership considers it, because they have an eternal dream that someone else should fight for their interests,” he said.
“Since Russia refused to send the Russian army to fight for the interests of Armenia, they are now looking for other countries that could fight for their interests,” he said.
After the conclusion of a truce between Russia and Ukraine, at the request of France, Ukrainian military units may be deployed on the territory of Armenia, he continued.
“If there is a huge Ukrainian army that will stand, since a truce will be concluded, then the use of this Ukrainian army in other countries in the interests of the leading NATO countries is possible,” he said.
The expert also said that the radical Armenian scenario can only come true if the whole situation becomes protracted and Armenia has time to implement it.
“But I think Azerbaijan will not give Armenia time if it sees it taking some steps in this direction. This will only lead to the early entry of the Azerbaijani troops on the territory of Garabagh because of Armenia’s violation of the cease-fire agreements,” said Markov.
“There may be intense fighting. But in principle, in a few weeks, maybe even days of intense fighting, Azerbaijan will take full control of the entire territory of Garabagh .”
Caliber.Az
1
|
700 tunnel shafts found in Rafah, 50 cross into Egypt Israel informs South Africa at UN top court
17 May 2024 - 15:56
|
2
|
Uncertainty over Russian border guard withdrawal from Armenia Amid conflicting statements
18 May 2024 - 14:47
|
3
|
New Caledonia crisis mirrors Macron's hypocrisy on Azerbaijan France faces its own crisis
17 May 2024 - 17:20
|
4
|
France's coercive colonial policies in New Caledonia Hypocrisy, repression, struggle for self-determination
16 May 2024 - 17:29
|
5
|
Political unrest in Armenia & Georgia amid Azerbaijan's rebuilding efforts in Karabakh South Caucasus in flux
16 May 2024 - 17:18
|
US Army’s multidomain task force contributing to AUKUS
19 May 2024 - 00:15
Slovakia at pivotal moment after Robert Fico shooting
18 May 2024 - 22:10
Russia admits it can’t halt nighttime uncrewed surface vessel raids
18 May 2024 - 20:00
Palestinian resistance eliminates 15 Israeli soldiers in Rafah
18 May 2024 - 18:18
Slovak PM’s attacker pleads guilty before court — media
18 May 2024 - 18:08
White House not thrilled by Macron’s D-Day invite to Russia
18 May 2024 - 17:59
Poland to begin construction of Eastern Shield
18 May 2024 - 17:47
Resistance destroys 100 Israeli vehicles in 10 days
18 May 2024 - 17:32
Hungarian FM calls for Azerbaijani delegation's return to PACE
18 May 2024 - 17:17
Ambrey says Panama-flagged oil tanker attacked southwest of Yemen's Mokha
18 May 2024 - 17:02
Pakistan, India issue warnings to students in Kyrgyzstan after mob violence
18 May 2024 - 16:47
New Croatian government receives confidence vote in Zagreb assembly
18 May 2024 - 16:36
Presidential couple attend inauguration, groundbreaking ceremonies in de-occupied territories
18 May 2024 - 16:30
Zelenskyy expects Russia to intensify offensive in northeast Ukraine
18 May 2024 - 16:24
Azerbaijan participates in 79th CISM General Assembly and Congress
18 May 2024 - 16:12
White House: “No surprise” over strengthening Russia-China alliance
18 May 2024 - 16:00
Five activists from Yerevan's revanchist movement released after detention
18 May 2024 - 15:47
China probes agriculture minister for suspected disciplinary violations
18 May 2024 - 15:36
Azerbaijani marine special forces involved in military exercises in Türkiye
PHOTO18 May 2024 - 15:24
German lawmakers suggest allies could protect sky over western Ukraine from NATO soil
18 May 2024 - 15:12
French authorities report sixth fatality in New Caledonia violence
18 May 2024 - 14:59
Uncertainty over Russian border guard withdrawal from Armenia
Amid conflicting statements18 May 2024 - 14:47
Azerbaijan, Iran set to inaugurate Qiz Qalasi hydroelectric complex on Araz River
18 May 2024 - 14:35
Future of nuclear energy: balancing clean power, safety, innovation
Caliber.Az on YouTube18 May 2024 - 14:23
Australia applies sanctions for North Korea arms supply
18 May 2024 - 14:08
US: 30 years for man who attacked Nancy Pelosi's husband
18 May 2024 - 13:53
Azerbaijani gas supplies to Europe via TAP surpass 35 billion cubic meters
18 May 2024 - 13:40
US says drone strikes on Russia hurt fuel supplies but not power
18 May 2024 - 13:28
COP29 at crossroads in Azerbaijan with focus on climate finance
Article by The Guardian18 May 2024 - 13:17
Azerbaijan seize Armenian weapons, ammunition in Khankandi, surrounding areas
PHOTO/VIDEO18 May 2024 - 13:03
Azerbaijani Army achieves substantial mine clearance in liberated territories
PHOTO/VIDEO18 May 2024 - 12:50
North Korean president guides tactical missile test with “autonomous navigation”
18 May 2024 - 12:38
Armenia, Netherlands mull bilateral relations, Baku-Yerevan peace treaty
18 May 2024 - 12:26
Azerbaijan sets priorities ahead of COP29
"Green" financing, ESG implementation18 May 2024 - 12:13
Pashinyan visits border village to persuade discontented residents, claims revanchist archbishop
18 May 2024 - 12:03
Gunmen kill three Spanish tourists in Afghanistan's central Bamyan province
18 May 2024 - 12:00
Israeli strike on West Bank's Jenin kills alleged militant leader, injures 8
18 May 2024 - 11:48
Turkish transport minister outlines timeline for Zangezur corridor launch
18 May 2024 - 11:38
Senegalese prime minister criticises French military bases on territory
18 May 2024 - 11:37
Azerbaijani oil price nears $85
18 May 2024 - 11:24