Biden's leadership spurs NATO resurgence at 75th-anniversary summit

Next week’s NATO Summit in Washington will highlight significant achievements under U.S. President Joe Biden’s leadership.

This event marks the 75th anniversary of NATO, which has demonstrated a remarkable resurgence since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to an article in The Foreign Policy magazine.

Biden’s presidency has seen the alliance expand to include Finland and Sweden, with a notable increase in NATO countries meeting the 2 per cent GDP defence spending target—from nine to 23 nations. At the summit, Biden will advocate for viewing this 2 per cent as a minimum threshold.

Under Biden, NATO's readiness has significantly improved. The number of U.S. troops in Europe and NATO forces near Russia has increased, with around 500,000 alliance soldiers now combat-ready in Europe. Efforts are also underway to expand NATO’s military-industrial base, addressing weapon and munitions shortages for Ukraine and preparing the alliance for future threats.

In 2022, Biden led a swift and comprehensive NATO response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Contrary to initial fears, Ukraine managed to resist Russian advances, partly due to the alliance’s support. The contribution of European NATO allies in military, economic, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine has grown, with Europe now outspending the U.S. in direct support. This shift marks a significant change in trans-Atlantic burden-sharing.

The article emphasizes that NATO’s achievements under Biden were not guaranteed. Post-Cold War, some leaders questioned NATO’s relevance, but the ongoing security threat from Russia proves the alliance’s importance. Without NATO, more countries near Russia might face war or threats. The article also contrasts Biden’s decisive actions with the potential scenario under former President Donald Trump, who was known for his favourable stance towards Putin and indifferent approach to Ukraine.

Despite Biden’s presence, a unified NATO response to Ukraine was not certain. During his vice presidency in 2014, the U.S. and NATO’s response to Russia’s actions in Crimea and Donbas was tepid, leading Putin to believe he could invade Ukraine again without significant consequences. Biden’s leadership disproved this assumption.

As the war drags on, the prospect of a complete Ukrainian victory remains uncertain. Putin might be waiting for Trump’s potential re-election, anticipating a favourable outcome. However, even if Biden wins, fully liberating Ukraine from Russian occupation appears challenging. Still, without NATO’s assistance, Ukraine’s situation would be far worse.

The summit is expected to make incremental progress on Ukraine’s NATO membership, disappointing Kyiv and some allies. The article suggests that inviting Ukraine now, with a long ratification process post-war, would be ideal, but this remains unlikely. Nonetheless, NATO will take steps to institutionalize its relationship with Ukraine, including establishing a NATO command in Germany and a permanent office in Kyiv.

Ukraine’s NATO membership is seen as essential to prevent future Russian invasions. Bilateral security agreements are beneficial but insufficient compared to NATO’s protection. The article argues that delaying Ukraine’s membership until the war ends gives Putin an incentive to prolong the conflict. However, a complete Ukrainian victory would leave Putin unable to continue fighting. If Russia retains occupied territories, Putin will claim victory, prioritizing this over stopping NATO expansion, which was a secondary motive for the invasion.

The article concludes by emphasizing the importance of NATO allies. Citing Winston Churchill, it underscores that fighting with allies is crucial, as demonstrated when NATO invoked the mutual defence clause in Afghanistan. The article calls for continued appreciation of leaders who value and strengthen alliances like NATO.