Armenia's EU aspirations clash with geography of South Caucasus, says Azerbaijani pundit

Azerbaijani political analyst and head of the Center for Studies of the South Caucasus, Farhad Mammadov, commented on the outcomes of the “Central Asia–European Union” summit and its implications for the opening of transport communications in the South Caucasus.

In his Telegram channel, Mammadov emphasized the growing tensions surrounding Armenia’s participation in East-West transport routes, Caliber.Az reports.

“Armenia is currently experiencing heated debates over its participation in East–West transport routes. The reason was a speech by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Samarkand, where she presented the EU’s vision involving the opening of the Armenian-Azerbaijani and Armenian-Turkish borders,” he wrote.

Mammadov also pointed out the European Union’s omission of Georgia from its transportation discussions, despite the country's significant role in logistical corridors alongside Azerbaijan. "The EU did not mention Georgia as a country that could play a role in logistical corridors, even though Georgia already fulfills such a role in tandem with Azerbaijan in terms of oil, gas, railways, highways, and power transmission lines. In Armenia, it is openly stated that the EU does not wish to deal with the current Georgian government, and that this is Armenia’s ‘moment in the sun’—with the hope that the EU will exert pressure on Baku to unblock transport communications,” he noted.

Mammadov pointed to the inconsistency in Armenia's foreign policy, recalling Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's past praise of a strategic partnership with Georgia. “Just a year ago, Pashinyan boasted about signing a strategic partnership agreement with Georgia. There were plans for a new axis in the region… And now, at the first opportunity—based solely on one statement by the EU’s chief commissioner—Armenia discards Georgia and casts itself in the role of the ‘beloved wife of Comrade Sukhov,’ in this case, the EU…”

He further questioned Armenia's commitment to regional integrity, referencing its silence on the illegal elections in Russian-occupied Abkhazia earlier this year. “Let us also recall the Armenian Foreign Ministry’s silence in response to the illegal elections in Russian-occupied Abkhazia in February and March of this year. What about support for Georgia’s territorial integrity? Where is the consistency? Or is Armenia’s Foreign Ministry bound by allied obligations to Moscow?”

The analyst emphasized the need for the EU to recognize the realities of regional geopolitics. “This is an issue not only with Armenia but more so with the EU… After all, the EU has supported Georgia’s territorial integrity and demanded the same from its members and allies. Doesn’t Armenia’s position raise any questions?” Mammadov wondered.

He also referenced Azerbaijan’s stance on the region's future. “The president of Azerbaijan clearly stated that regional processes in the South Caucasus are not the EU’s domain. There is geography, there are existing infrastructures, and the EU will have to come to terms with reality. The dreams of EU officials will remain suspended—Ursula von der Leyen is not Moses, and she doesn’t have a staff with which she can strike the sea and part it… The decision will be made by Baku, and agreements must be made with Baku.”

Mammadov continued by underscoring the disconnect between Armenia’s actions and regional dynamics. “Once again, Armenia demonstrates a disconnect from geography and reality, lacking any genuine regional approach. Ultimately, Armenia continues to promote policies that run counter to the interests of other countries in the region. Previously, it was Russia; now, it’s the EU…”

The analyst also highlighted the importance of Georgia’s role in regional peace-building. “President Ilham Aliyev also mentioned Georgian initiatives for confidence-building measures between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which Baku has already agreed to. This, too, seems significant. A regional format is being maintained, emphasizing Georgia’s role and importance. This initiative appears to be an attempt to bring Armenia back into a regional framework—to help Pashinyan’s government make peace with its geography,” Mammadov concluded.

By Khagan Isayev