Armenia’s overreliance on Western security could end in disappointment, expert warns

The Armenian authorities continue to live under the illusion of Western, particularly U.S., support for ensuring security—a miscalculation that could once again lead to disappointment, said Armenian political analyst Suren Surenyants.  

According to him, credible American think tanks, including Stratfor, have warned that the U.S. may once again fail to meet Armenian expectations, Caliber.Az reports, citing Armenian media.

Stratfor, often referred to in expert circles as the "shadow CIA," previously noted in the context of future power dynamics in the South Caucasus that Armenia's efforts to secure robust support from the U.S. are likely to fail. This is because the Trump administration prioritized strong ties with Baku as a counterweight to Russian, Iranian, and Chinese influence in the region.  

Surenyants emphasized that even without Trump's presidency, the U.S. had no strategic interest in supporting Armenia against Türkiye and Azerbaijan. Ankara and Baku are key Western allies in diminishing Russian and Iranian influence, making Stratfor's assessments quite objective. The problem, he noted, is that the Armenian authorities either fail to understand this reality or deliberately ignore it, which has led to failures and crises in the past.  

"I find it difficult to understand what calculations Nikol Pashinyan relies on as he continues this unclear course toward an illusory rapprochement with the West. Most likely, there are no calculations or logic behind his actions. He simply continues to mistake wishful thinking for reality," Surenyants remarked.  

The expert highlighted that the Armenian authorities had already made a major error in the past by drawing premature conclusions from isolated episodes of the war in Ukraine and "placing their bets" on Western partners.  

According to Surenyants, it is possible that the current Armenian leadership is making a similarly flawed assessment based on Ukraine's recent military activities in the Kursk region. However, he argued that the "Kursk episode" is too localized and insignificant to influence the broader war, and ignoring Russia's role in the region would be highly reckless.  

In negotiations with Azerbaijan, Surenyants called for a return to the trilateral November 2020 statement signed by the leaders of Armenia, Russia, and Azerbaijan.  

He stressed that the events of recent years have shown that the trilateral statement is the safest option for Armenia. Even if some compromises are required during the negotiation process, the losses would be minimal compared to the risks associated with alternative platforms and formats. Surenyants is convinced that negotiations outside this framework would only lead to further setbacks for Yerevan.  

By Khagan Isayev