Azerbaijan leads CIS-4 countries in economic indicators, banking group says

Azerbaijan has demonstrated the most stable economic performance among the CIS-4 countries — Azerbaijan, Armenia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan — amid rising global energy prices and continued risks to regional currencies, according to the Dutch banking group ING.

The group's experts said higher revenues from the oil and gas sector are strengthening Azerbaijan’s substantial fiscal and strategic reserves, Caliber.Az reports, citin local media.

This enables the country to maintain significant surpluses in both the state budget and current account, while also preserving the stability of the manat’s exchange rate, ING specialists said.

Analysts noted that the overall commodity market outlook in the region remains mixed due to logistical constraints and external factors putting pressure on neighboring countries. At the same time, Azerbaijan’s strong macroeconomic position reduces the need for urgent action by monetary authorities.

In particular, ING expects the Central Bank of Azerbaijan, like Armenia’s central bank, to keep its benchmark interest rate at 6.5% annually amid moderate inflation, which is developing from a relatively low base and is expected to remain within the 4–6% range.

Meanwhile, monetary policy decisions in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan could be more flexible amid slowing inflation and the impact of portfolio capital flows.

By Bakhtiyar Abbasov