Bloomberg: Moscow's influence in Syria at risk as talks over key bases fail

Russia is facing challenges in maintaining its military presence at two key bases in Syria, crucial for projecting its influence in the Middle East and Africa.

Negotiations with Syria’s new government have stalled, the source in Moscow, who requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the matter, stated in a conversation with Bloomberg, per Caliber.Az.

Russian operations at the Hmeimim airfield have been scaled back, and two Russian transport ships were delayed for weeks before Syrian authorities allowed them to dock at Tartus naval base to unload military equipment.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, President Vladimir Putin’s special representative for the Middle East, visited Damascus on January 28. This marked the first Russian delegation trip since the change in Syria’s leadership.

The Kremlin had hoped to convince Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), the former al-Qaeda offshoot that led to the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad last month, to allow Russia to maintain its bases in Syria. Moscow played a role in helping Assad flee to Russia as his regime collapsed. Tartus serves as Russia’s only naval hub in the Mediterranean, and Hmeimim is vital for resupplying Moscow’s operations across Africa. The two bases have been key in Russia’s efforts to regain Cold War-era influence in the region, and losing them would be a significant strategic blow, particularly as Russia remains in a tense standoff with the US and European allies nearly three years after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Ship-tracking data showed that at least one of the Russian ships, the Sparta II, which is designed to transport wheeled cargo like trucks, left the Tartus port area on January 28.

Türkiye, which supported the rebel forces that ousted Assad and is a rival to Russia in Syria, opposes the continuation of Russia’s military presence. Two senior Turkish officials indicated that it is unlikely the new Syrian government will permit Russia to remain at the bases, especially after Russian warplanes targeted opposition forces during the civil war.

Meanwhile, European Union foreign ministers, including those from Germany and France, visited Syria after the New Year as part of efforts to engage with the new government and reduce Russia’s influence. The EU recently reached a preliminary agreement on a roadmap to gradually ease sanctions on Syria, according to the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas.

Additionally, some Group of Seven nations have explored ways to help Syria reduce its dependence on Russian oil and food imports. Ukraine recently sent a wheat shipment to Syria and promised further deliveries during a visit by Syrian foreign and agricultural officials in December.

By Tamilla Hasanova