Egypt eyes Chinese jets amid US F-35 standoff

Egypt’s pursuit of advanced fighter jets has hit a snag, as its bid for 20 F-35 stealth fighters from the United States remains stalled.

Egypt remains keen on acquiring top-tier fighter jets, but its pursuit is currently facing hurdles, Caliber.Az reports, citing foreign media.

With its attempt to purchase 20 F-35 stealth fighters from the US stalled, Egyptian officials have reportedly explored the possibility of acquiring fourth- and fifth-generation jets from China. This shift could indicate either a serious interest in advanced aircraft from a US competitor or a strategic move to pressure the US into approving the F-35 sale. Among the jets Egypt is considering are the fourth-generation J-10C Vigorous Dragon, used by China and Pakistan, and the fifth-generation FC-31 Gyrfalcon, which is still in the prototype stage. There were even reports in August that Egypt showed interest in China's premier fifth-generation fighter, the J-20 Mighty Dragon, though this is unlikely due to Beijing's reluctance to export it.

Nicholas Heras, Senior Director of Strategy and Innovation at the New Lines Institute, suggested that China would be eager to sell advanced fighters to Egypt due to the latter’s history of substantial military purchases. However, Egypt would need to tread carefully to avoid straining its relationship with the United States and address Israeli concerns about the implications of such a purchase on regional dynamics. Two US laws are complicating Egypt's efforts: the 2008 legislation that ensures Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge by restricting advanced weapon sales to other regional nations, and the 2017 Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which imposes sanctions on countries that procure military equipment from US adversaries. Egypt faces restrictions due to US policies aimed at ensuring Israel maintains a qualitative military edge (QME) over its Arab neighbors, even those like Egypt with which it has a peace treaty, according to Heras. The F-35 is particularly contentious for Israel, as it could potentially neutralize Israel’s air superiority if relations between Egypt and Israel were to deteriorate.

During his presidency, Donald Trump had verbally committed to selling Egypt 20 F-35As in 2018, but the deal was blocked by opposition from the Department of Defense and Israeli objections. In response, Egypt sought to acquire 24 fourth-generation Su-35s from Russia but had to cancel this order due to impending sanctions. Maj. Gen. Naser Salem, former head of the Egyptian army's reconnaissance department, expressed Egypt's frustration, questioning why the US would not supply F-35s to Egypt while opposing the Russian Su-35 deal. Ryan Bohl, a senior analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, suggested that Egypt’s recent discussions with China over fighter jets might be aimed at pressuring the US into providing alternative defense options, such as upgraded F-16s or, as the US proposed in 2022, F-15s.

Neither of these older models would challenge Israel’s military superiority, as the Israeli Defense Force operates advanced versions of these aircraft, along with the F-35, which features stealth technology and sophisticated avionics. Since the peace agreement with Israel in 1979, Egypt has been a significant recipient of US military aid, receiving $1.3 billion annually and operating a wide array of American military equipment, including F-16s and M1 Abrams tanks. 

Given this extensive relationship, it's uncertain whether China would be willing to sell one of its most advanced fighter jets to Egypt. According to Bohl, China might hesitate to sell advanced military technology to a major non-NATO ally like Egypt due to concerns that the US could potentially obtain sensitive information or even steal it. Beijing would likely require assurances and time to build trust before considering such a deal.

 While Egypt has previously purchased Chinese warplanes like the Shenyang J-6, which is an outdated model, the cutting-edge FC-31 represents a significant leap in technology. At most, China might consider selling Egypt less advanced aircraft, such as the J-10C, before discussing any fifth-generation jets. Egypt faces challenges in convincing the US to lift its ban on selling F-35s. Currently, the F-35 sale is not a priority for the US due to the need to uphold Israel’s qualitative military edge (QME), Egypt's relatively less urgent need for F-35s, and broader geopolitical concerns in Europe and Asia.

However, there is a possibility that Egypt could argue that acquiring 20 F-35As would not diminish Israel’s military advantage, especially given Israel's current and upcoming F-35 acquisitions and its possession of a more advanced variant, the F-35I Adir. Bohl noted that if Egypt’s support for Israel in the Gaza War continues, there might be a chance for more flexibility from Israel. Alternatively, Egypt might consider acquiring stealth fighters from other countries developing such technology, such as South Korea, Türkiye, or India.

This option could be more viable, though these systems are still years away from deployment and export. Türkiye’s TF Kaan, being the most advanced among these, could be a potential candidate, with Ankara eager to offer it for export. Bohl suggested that these second-tier options might be the most practical route for Egypt to enter the fifth-generation fighter jet arena.