From energy to security: What will Baku gain from the Abraham Accords? Article by Israel National News

The Israeli radio station Israel National News – Arutz Sheva has published an article by Rachel Avraham dedicated to the possible inclusion of Azerbaijan in the Abraham Accords. Caliber.Az offers its audience an adapted version of the piece.

Under the vision and global outlook of U.S. President Donald Trump, who continues to forge connections once deemed implausible, Azerbaijan has once again reached a pivotal crossroads. Should Baku decide to join the Abraham Accords, Azerbaijan would gain a new level of geopolitical power that could dramatically shift its current diplomatic position.

The question of Azerbaijan's potential accession to the Abraham Accords is sparking intense debate, drawing in analysts and diplomats. Such a move could alter the balance of power across Asia, the Middle East, and even Europe.

According to Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, the United States is currently engaged in talks with six Muslim and Arab countries regarding normalisation with Israel, including Azerbaijan among them.

Syria and Lebanon are also involved in the talks, which is surprising given the long history of hostility between Tel Aviv, Damascus and Beirut. This development suggests that the US, especially under Trump, has neither the patience nor the interest in getting involved in religious and territorial conflicts in the Middle East. Instead, it seeks peace through pragmatic means: money and a careful balancing of interests. In other words, Washington is intent on ushering in a new era in international relations, especially in the Middle East.

For Azerbaijan, joining the Abraham Accords would be a highly strategic move. This means Azerbaijan has little to lose and much to gain. Israel is Azerbaijan’s best friend after Türkiye - a fact well known to people across the region.

One can look at the model of relations between Israel and the UAE. Ties existed between them before the agreement, but it opened the door to the full potential of these relations. The countries have strengthened cooperation in almost all areas: investment, defence, tourism, technology, agriculture, green energy and infrastructure.

But the benefits of the Abraham Accords go beyond economics. They reflect a broader transformation in Middle Eastern politics—in which nationalist and religious ideologies can be gradually replaced by strategic, economic, and security interests. The US is using its power and influence to foster new alliances among regional powers—partnerships that, until recently, were almost unthinkable. In this context, Israel’s advanced tech economy and military capabilities position it as a valuable ally to those now viewing it as a potential strategic partner.

Many wonder what Azerbaijan stands to gain from the Abraham Accords. The answer: quite a lot. From an energy perspective, Azerbaijan is already a key supplier to Europe, having exported over 12 billion cubic meters of gas to the continent in 2023. That makes it a cornerstone of European energy security. By joining the Accords, Azerbaijan could increase profits from its energy sector and further bolster its standing in Europe.

In terms of trade, Azerbaijan could expand its volume with Middle Eastern countries, which totalled $4.5 billion in 2023. Normalised ties with Gulf states could enhance these opportunities and attract new economic investments, such as those from the Middle East Development Fund.

On the innovation front, Azerbaijan could significantly accelerate its digital transformation in fields like cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, agri-tech, and health tech—especially through cooperation with the region’s two most advanced players in these areas: Israel and the UAE.

Geopolitically, Azerbaijan would strengthen both its influence in the region and the weight of its strategic decisions.

Militarily, expanding cooperation with Israel would provide tangible benefits. Israel is already a significant arms supplier to Azerbaijan.

If Azerbaijan ultimately decides to join the Abraham Accords, it would be elevated to the status of a global geopolitical player. Beyond its role as a mediator in various global conflicts (Türkiye-Syria-Israel, Russia-West), Azerbaijan would be positioned to do business and build partnerships with numerous influential international actors.

Azerbaijan's inclusion in the agreements would reflect a broader shift in global diplomacy, with regional powers increasingly shaping their own order rather than relying on two or three superpowers to dictate the world's direction.

For Azerbaijan, joining presents a rare opportunity to accelerate economic growth, deepen security ties, and expand its diplomatic influence. In turn, the agreements could become the basis for a pragmatic coalition of nations seeking prosperity and peace.

By Khagan Isayev