How enflaming conflict in Middle East could bring Russia, Iran closer together An analysis by Newsweek

The heinous attack on Israeli civilians by the Iran-backed Hamas militant group, which led to a massive military operation by Israel in response to the over 1,000 casualties, makes many security experts fear that the conflict could spill over or enflame already tense situations, such as an even further aligning between Russia and Iran amid the latter being brought up in connection to these attacks. The Foreign Policy journal has assessed how likely such a scenario is and how it could unfold. Caliber.Az reprints part of this article.

"European officials and experts are concerned that Russia could exploit the chaos surrounding the Hamas attack on Israel, pushing the Kremlin even closer to Iran, which is allied with the Palestinian militant group.

There is no sign that Russia provided material support—or even had advance notice—prior to the surprise attack on Saturday, which has left at least 900 Israelis dead and scores more kidnapped and taken into the Gaza Strip, where Israel has begun retaliatory strikes. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Monday that he’d ordered a full siege of the area. 'No power, no food, no gas, everything is closed', he said.

But Hamas receives significant backing from Iran, an increasingly close ally of the Kremlin that has provided thousands of suicide drones for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The attack on Israel, one of America’s closest allies, not only has created the possibility of a two-front war in the Middle East but has also stretched US and European armories and political willpower. The crisis comes at a time when the West was already having trouble summoning more ammunition and money to support Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

The 'Russians would be interested in fragmenting the West and creating additional problems', former Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks said. 'It all has to be done simultaneously. [The] Russians hope somebody will say it’s too hard'.

Russia is likely to tread lightly, given long-standing historical and diplomatic connections to Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin have forged close ties over the years, with the Kremlin supporting Israel’s concerns over Hezbollah tunnels dug from Lebanon under the Israeli border and even forming a joint task force to discuss withdrawing all foreign troops from Syria.

The Kremlin has not condemned the Hamas attack. Israel has also stopped short of a full-throated condemnation of Russia’s war on Ukraine and took a neutral stance on Russia’s illegal annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, before condemning the move four years later.

Hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens reside in Israel, and around 1.5 million Israelis speak Russian. Israel has backed Ukraine diplomatically but has not provided weapons despite its $12 billion arms industry. Russia is hoping Israel will continue to stay out of the fray in that war, said Jonathan Lord, a senior fellow and director of the Middle East security program at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think tank. 'However, if Russia’s back is further and further up against a wall in Ukraine, Iran will be in a position to demand more', such as asking Russia for air defense systems for itself or for its proxies; for advanced fighter jets; or even for help in filling gaps in its nuclear program. 'That’s going to have direct repercussions on Israeli security and the security of the region', Lord said.

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Michael Doran, an expert at the Hudson Institute, told Foreign Policy that Iran’s Quds Force, a special unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that has helped build battle-ready proxies for Tehran around the Middle East, had assisted Hamas in improving its tactical acumen. Hamas was able to breach the Gaza fence and overrun Israeli villages, using paragliders and homemade rockets against one of the most technologically advanced militaries in the world".