How the Ukraine conflict brings Turkic states closer Op-ed by Modern Diplomacy

Ali Mammadov, Master of Arts in International Relations at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), has published an article for Modern Diplomacy about the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the relations of Turkic states. Caliber.Az reprints the article.

Concerns and possibilities have emerged in the Eurasia region for nations that have close links to Russia as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. To avoid the possible costs and hazards of the conflict, a number of states, including Turkic states such as Turkey and Azerbaijan, as well as states in Central Asia, are looking to strengthen their collaboration.

Turkic republics, despite their many differences and the influence of other power blocs, such as Russia and China, have always seen themselves as members of the same family. As a result of their shared ancestry, several of these states have long wished to cooperate more closely with one another. The desire to lead Turkic cooperation is more evident than it has ever been, particularly in Turkey, which has been the primary driving force behind closer cooperation. After the strengthening of ties between the ruling party, the AKP, and the nationalist party, the MHP, this desire is more evident than it has ever been.

Kazakhstan is another example of a state that is interested in a closer partnership with Turkic nations. This interest led to Kazakhstan’s active participation in proposing the gathering of Turkic people under one umbrella, which later led to the Turkic Council being renamed the Organization of Turkic States. Since Russia’s attention is currently focused on the war in Ukraine, this presents an excellent opportunity for Turkic states to improve their ties with one another.

In addition to the common history, more cooperation among Turkic speakers is warranted for a number of other, more pragmatic reasons. First, Russia has shown other countries who were formerly part of the Soviet Union that it is not afraid to use military force to dominate them by invading Ukraine. This is something that was clearly seen in the case of Georgia. Even after Kazakhstan made the decision not to side with Russia during the conflict in Ukraine, Russian critics began making threats that Kazakhstan would be the next country to fall victim to Russia’s aggression. After that, a Kazakh official had a meeting with the military attaché of Turkey to discuss the possibility of future cooperation.

Later, the Uzbek Minister of Defense and the Turkish Minister of Defense both signed an agreement to cooperate with one another. It is very clear that the struggle forces Turkic republics to search for more alliances in order to strengthen their defences against the possibility of invasion. Being a member of something greater can lessen the possibility of military operations of this kind being carried out against Turkic states. As a consequence of this, the Turkic states would benefit much by working together on matters of national security.

Second, the conflict has contributed to Russia’s unfavourable image, which has caused Turkic governments to avoid excessively associating with it. This is because having a reputation for being a close ally of Russia has a detrimental impact on relations with the West. Belarus is a good example; because of its tight relationship with Russia, it has fewer allies in Europe. On the other hand, Turkic states do not intend for this to be how they are remembered. The majority of Turkic republics were originally a member of the Soviet Union; they continue to take part in integration programs coordinated by Russia; and they are strategic allies of Russia. To get to the heart of the matter, one can’t help but link them up with Russia. Because of the current circumstances, those governments may feel the need to show the rest of the world that they are not totally dependent on Russia and that they are capable of coming to their own conclusions in order to dispel the notion that the West views them as close allies of Russia.

As a direct consequence of this, and contrary to what Russia most likely anticipated would happen, not a single Turkic state supported the actions in Ukraine. Because if they supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it would definitely show the rest of the globe that they were willing to accept anything Russia did, and this would send a very bad message to the rest of the world.

The disassociation from Russia may be leading to a strengthening of links among Turkic states for two primary reasons: to build a new identity, and to avoid excessive influence from China. Both of these goals are being pursued by the Turkic republics. People in Central Asia are already grumbling about China’s overbearing presence in the region, despite the fact that China provides a significant amount of investment to the region. In addition, despite their silence, Central Asian states may be growing apprehensive of China as a result of China’s treatment of Turkic minority, which was attacked by Turkey. This criticism came as a result of China’s handling of Turkic minorities.

Third, because the West has effectively barred Russia in terms of the sale of gas and oil as well as commercial and monetary transactions, Central Asian governments are looking for new trading partners so that their goods can be transported to Europe. At the moment, it is dangerous to rely on Russia as a source of transportation. Since a consequence of this, the republics of Central Asia may be interested in expanding their cooperation with Azerbaijan, as this country represents a feasible alternative for transporting goods to Western countries. Cooperation is already taking place but quickening the pace at which projects are finished and increasing the amount of time spent cooperating will only serve to enhance ties between Turkic governments.

Recently, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan came to an agreement to cooperate in the energy sector and declared their goals for the period ending in 2023. At the same time, SOCAR and Uzbekneftegaz made the decision to improve their cooperation with one another. One other illustration of this would be the recent agreements that Azerbaijan has made with Kazakhstan, one of which involves working together on the Middle Corridor. It is essential to point out that Russian was not the primary language used during the discussions between the heads of state of the two Turkic states. This is an unusual occurrence, as Russian is typically the language spoken during meetings between the heads of state of countries that formerly belonged to the Soviet Union. In most other instances, English is used.

However, in the meetings that were discussed previously, the leaders spoke in their native tongues. This demonstrated not only their unwillingness to accept Russian control but also their stress on the shared origins of the nations. The recent simultaneous visits of the presidents of Turkey and Azerbaijan to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, respectively, are also examples of Turkic integration. And the most recent example was the establishment of the “Alphabet Commission” among Turkic states to unify languages.

As a result of the opportunity presented by the current war, the Turkic states are showing signs that they are expanding their cooperation and are more inclined to grow closer with each other. These signs may be seen in the aspects that were described above. However, it is also important to note that, despite the fact that Turkic states are likely to engage in increased degrees of collaboration with one another in the near future, it is not reasonable to anticipate that they will soon come together to form a significant and unified power bloc. Both from within the states themselves and from other countries come challenges that must be dealt with.

Recent conflicts that have broken out between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan can serve as an example of those difficulties. In spite of this, Turkic states may, in the long run, be able to counterbalance the influence of China and Russia in the region if they cooperate more frequently and build closer ties with one another.