Is Azerbaijani-Iranian rapprochement realistic?

Israel Hayom has published an analysis arguing that in the wake of the visit of Israel's President, Isaac Herzog, to Azerbaijan, Iranian rhetoric against Baku has only worsened. Caliber.Az reprints the article.

As the Islamic Republic of Iran opens its new embassy in Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijani-Iranian relations continue to deteriorate. In recent days, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry issued a warning against Azerbaijani citizens travelling to Iran. This comes as Azerbaijani embassies across the world increase their security in the wake of the Iranian threat and as an Azerbaijani student, Farid Safarli was imprisoned in the Islamic Republic after travelling to Tehran to visit his girlfriend. Presently, Safarli faces espionage charges.

In the wake of the visit of Israel's President, Isaac Herzog, to Azerbaijan, Iranian rhetoric against Baku has only worsened. There have been media reports that Nasser Kananai of Iran's Foreign Ministry referred to Israel's president as the president of the "fake, child-killing and occupying Zionist regime" and slammed Azerbaijan for hosting him.

This comes after the Azerbaijani authorities closed the offices of the Iranian Cultural Attaché in Baku, declared 6 Iranian officials to be persona non grata, and gave them 48 hours to leave Azerbaijan. Iran did the same to four Azerbaijani diplomats in Tehran. These latest moves were taken after Iran attacked the Azerbaijani Embassy in Tehran last International Holocaust Memorial Day, killing a security guard, waged an assassination attempt against Azerbaijani MP Fazil Mustafa, and tried to kill Azerbaijani dissident in the US, Ahmad Obali and his son Deniz.

Iran's hatred of Azerbaijan has deep roots. The Iranians despise Azerbaijan for being a majority Shia country that chooses to be secular, modern, tolerant, and multicultural. For this reason, the Iranians always backed Armenia in their dispute with Azerbaijan and are doing everything possible to block a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia, as this will lead to Iranian influence decreasing in the region. Furthermore, the Iranians also hate Azerbaijan for building a positive relationship with the State of Israel and opening up a new embassy in Tel Aviv.

The Iranians especially hate the State of Israel. In their eyes, Israel is the little Satan while the US is the big Satan. They are propping up Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in their war against Israel. They believe that Israel should be wiped off the map. They were opposed to the Abraham Accords and every other peace agreement signed between Israel and other Muslim-majority countries.

Recently, it was exposed by MEMRI that Esmail Qaani, the head of the Quds Force, sent a letter to the Palestinian terror groups, saying: "I stress once again that the Islamic Republic of Iran will continue to use all its abilities and resources to support the Palestinian people and their courageous resistance, and to strengthen the resistance axis until the oppressive Zionist entity is removed from all the lands of blessed Palestine."

Meanwhile, as the Iranians seek to support and strengthen terror groups that are opposed to Israel, they also want to weaken Azerbaijan and other countries that are at peace with Israel. Since 40% of the Iranian population is of Azerbaijani origin and these people seek to secede from Iran and form an independent South Azerbaijan, the Iranians have even more vengeance against Azerbaijan than they have against other Abraham Accords countries since they view a strong Azerbaijan as a threat to the mere existence of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

After all, a strong Azerbaijan that reclaims Shusha, Fizouli, Aghdam, and other cities in Karabakh can one day also reclaim Tabriz and other Azerbaijani cities that were separated from Azerbaijan unfairly due to the colonial Treaty of Turkmenchay between Qajar Iran and the Russians in 1828.

We also must take into account the Turkish reluctance to any rapprochement between Azerbaijan and Iran. This reluctance is a result of the common Turkic national sentiment which considers Turkey, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkic republics of the Russian Federation, and the Eastern (Chinese) Turkestan (homeland of Uyghurs) to be indivisible parts of the Turkic ("Pan-Turan") nation. Iran is led by Persians, and hatred between Turks and Persians has deep historic and cultural roots on both sides.

In light of all these reasons, it is unlikely that there will be any sort of rapprochement between Tehran and Baku in the near future.