ISW: Russia retooling defence umbrella amid Ukraine's drone strikes

Russia may be retooling aspects of its air defence umbrella in deep rear areas amid continued Ukrainian drone strikes within Russia.

It follows from the conclusions of the analysts of the US think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) published as part of a daily update on the Russian military campaign, Caliber.Az reports.

Russian outlet Kommersant reported on January 29 that the Russian Ministry of Digital Development ordered Russian authorities in Leningrad, Novgorod, and Pskov oblasts to block 4G LTE internet connection until January 30 so that Russian officials can “fine-tune” anti-drone and air defence systems.

Leningrad, Novgorod, and Pskov oblasts previously announced disruptions to 4G LTE internet services from January 25 to January 30 in connection with technical adjustments to the “radio frequency spectrum.” One of Kommersant’s sources stated that Voronezh Oblast is conducting similar efforts that have been “planned at the federal level” and that many other unspecified Russian federal subjects are pursuing these efforts at different paces.

Kommersant stated that Russian electronic warfare (EW) systems and mobile internet providers both operate on frequencies permitted by the Russian State Commission on Radio Frequencies (SCRF), and Kommersant’s source stated that indiscriminate EW use can interfere with mobile data.

It is unclear what impact internet operations may have on the reorientation of EW systems or the deployment of new capabilities and vice versa. It is equally possible that Russian forces may be testing new EW capabilities and preemptively turning off internet services to avoid sudden disruptions. Russian officials may also be limiting access to the internet to conceal the movement of conventional air defence systems within Russia after Ukrainian drone strikes in Leningrad Oblast on January 18 and January 21 suggested that Russian air defences in northwestern Russia may be ill-deployed to defend against drones launched from Ukraine.

Yaroslavl Oblast Governor Mikhail Yevraev claimed on January 29 that Russian EW systems downed a Ukrainian drone targeting the Slavneft-Yanos oil refinery in Yaroslavl Oblast. Russian sources amplified images of the downed drown at the refinery and claimed that it did not cause any damage.

Apart from that, analysts note that Ukraine continues efforts to align the Ukrainian Armed Forces with NATO standards. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on January 28 that Ukraine implemented over 18 NATO standards between December 2023 and January 2024, including standards for protecting personnel, communication training for naval forces, and procedures for information and transportation systems.

Ukraine’s partners continue efforts to build out their defence industrial base (DIB) capabilities in support of Ukraine. German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger stated in an interview with Bild on January 28 that Rheinmetall is building a new ammunition factory in Germany to create a “strategic security of supply” and ensure uninterrupted supply to Ukraine. Papperger also noted that Rheinmetall received over 10 billion Euros in military procurement orders from the German Federal government in 2023 for the German Armed Forces and Ukraine and that this will likely increase to 15 billion Euros in 2024.