Lebanon's path to reclaiming autonomy with first president since 2022 An article by Al Arabiya

Lebanon finds itself at a pivotal moment in its history, grappling with a convergence of crises that have left the nation in disarray. The country has endured a severe economic collapse which started even before the horrific August 2020 port explosion, with the Lebanese pound losing over 95% of its value, a banking crisis that has locked citizens out of their savings, and the lingering scars of a destructive conflict with Israel. In January 2025, a turning point emerged with the election of Joseph Aoun as president, breaking a political deadlock that had left the presidency vacant since October 2022 due to Hezbollah's obstruction.

According to an article by the Al Arabiya publication, this development has the potential to allow the country to reclaim its autonomy and bring an end of a tumultuous era in which Lebanon was exploited as a battleground for regional conflicts involving powers like Nasserism, Saddamism, the al-Assad regime, and Iranian influence. 

Joseph Aoun’s election was the result of significant international and Arab intervention, driven by the urgency to stabilize the country. External pressures, including threats from the United States to cut economic aid and Israeli military surveillance, underscored the necessity of resolving the political vacuum.

Notably, Lebanese security forces took decisive actions, such as confiscating prohibited items from the Iranian embassy at Beirut Airport during the deliberations and extraditing wanted Syrian officers, signaling a shift toward sovereignty and accountability. Within parliament, the era of coercing MPs into voting against their will—once a tactic of Hezbollah and the al-Assad regime—has come to an end. Although Hezbollah still exists, the article believes that efforts to dismantle a significant portion of its arsenal are ongoing under a ceasefire agreement.

The resolution of Lebanon’s leadership crisis opens the door for political and economic reforms. With Hezbollah's influence waning, efforts to dismantle its arsenal are underway under a ceasefire agreement. Lebanon is also positioned to reignite commercial activities that were disrupted by the Syrian war and drug-trafficking networks tied to Hezbollah and the al-Assad regime. The country is now poised to activate its oil production agreement with Israel, resolving long-standing border disputes fabricated by the former Syrian government. According to the authors, these developments could restore Lebanon’s role as a regional economic hub.

The recent war with Israel is anticipated to be the last conflict waged through Lebanon. As neighboring states like Egypt and Jordan have demonstrated through peace agreements with Israel, ending hostilities can serve national security interests. Lebanon may not yet be ready for a formal peace treaty, but it could build on the framework of the Naqoura Agreement of 1949, which recognized mutual borders and concluded the 1948 War between Israel and Lebanon.

In his inaugural speech, President Aoun emphasized Lebanon's commitment to self-reliance, focusing on economic revival and exporting its best products. He hinted at pursuing a comprehensive defense strategy, encompassing diplomatic, economic, and military dimensions. The hope is that Lebanon will move beyond being a proxy battleground and embrace a future of stability and development. 

While challenges remain, including internal divisions and the remnants of Hezbollah’s influence, the shifting regional dynamics and the toll of conflict may convince even the most resistant factions that peace and reconstruction are in their best interest. The authors are convinced that Lebanon now stands at the threshold of a new chapter, where its sovereignty and prosperity could finally take precedence.

By Nazrin Sadigova