Media: Russia’s exploding drone arsenal shifts battlefield

Russia's dramatic escalation in drone production marks a turning point in the war against Ukraine—and a growing threat not only to Ukraine’s defenses but to regional stability as a whole. What began three years ago with modest numbers of Iranian-supplied Shahed drones has evolved into a massive, state-prioritized industry capable of producing tens of thousands of one-way attack drones annually.

An article by The New York Times argues that this surge is not accidental; it is the result of a top-down mobilization of Russian political, industrial, and educational institutions. Students, regional governments, and factories are now part of a sprawling drone-manufacturing ecosystem, encouraged by the Kremlin’s clear strategic emphasis on unmanned aerial warfare. At least two main facilities in Russia are now assembling these drones domestically, and analysts estimate production has reached 30,000 attack drones per year—with projections to double that by 2026.

The implications are stark. In just one night this month, Russia launched 810 drones and decoys into Ukraine—a number unimaginable early in the war. Although Ukraine successfully intercepted the vast majority, dozens still broke through, hitting dozens of targets across the country. Even with an 88–92% success rate in interceptions, Ukraine is struggling to keep pace with the sheer volume of attacks.

Russia’s strategic shift is clear: use mass drone swarms, decoys, and advanced flight paths to saturate and overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. Improved guidance systems, jamming resistance, and diverse warhead types make the drones more lethal and harder to counter. Meanwhile, Russian drones are increasingly flying higher and in complex waves, bypassing traditional air defense zones and entering urban areas where civilian casualties are more likely—amplifying the psychological terror.

The use of decoy drones also reflects Russia’s growing tactical sophistication. These foam and plywood constructs confuse defense systems and waste valuable interceptor resources. Ukraine’s drone advantage, once decisive, is eroding rapidly.

The scale, pace, and technological evolution of Russia’s drone production should alarm not just Ukraine, but NATO as well. As seen in recent airspace violations over Poland and Romania, this threat is no longer confined to the battlefield. Russia’s drone empire is expanding—and with it, the risks for Europe.

By Vafa Guliyeva