Media: Russia's tactical shift, strong homefront make it powerhouse in Ukraine war

As the war in Ukraine continues, Russia has shown remarkable resilience both on the battlefield and within its society. While Ukraine’s position has become more precarious, Russia’s military advantages, coupled with strong domestic support, have enabled it to maintain a steady course.

With both sides suffering heavy losses, the prospect of peace negotiations is increasingly on the horizon, influenced by the harsh realities of the conflict. In the face of a protracted conflict, Russia has proven to be more adaptable than many anticipated, Caliber.Az reports citing foreign media.

“Few analysts would argue today that Ukraine is winning the war,” as Russia has gained the upper hand militarily, even without overwhelming battlefield victories. Recent developments suggest that the Ukrainian position in the Kursk region could soon face a critical threat, exacerbating concerns over Ukraine’s strategic stability. Following Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, Russian forces have steadily advanced in the Donbas region, albeit at a slow pace.

The initial optimistic view from Ukraine’s Western allies appears to be fading, with political will to continue supporting the war waning. Former US President Donald Trump has been vocal in advocating for Ukraine to negotiate an end to the war, which could involve acknowledging Crimea as part of Russia and conceding control over much of the Donbas region.

While much of the discourse has focused on Ukrainian resilience, less attention has been given to Russian resilience, both in terms of military performance and societal backing. From the outset of the conflict, Russian polling data showed broad public support for President Vladimir Putin’s actions, with the majority of Russians continuing to back the war effort. This support is largely due to the fact that the population has been shielded from experiencing the full economic and human costs of the conflict.

Russia’s economy, despite the challenges posed by Western sanctions, has remained relatively stable. The Russian Federal State Statistics Service reported a 4.1 percent GDP growth for 2024, much of it driven by military spending. Unemployment rates have also fallen to post-Soviet lows, which has contributed to the overall economic resilience.

In terms of military strategy, Russia has adjusted its tactics since the early days of the war. Initially underprepared, the Russian military now operates with a more methodical approach, particularly in artillery and coordinated attacks. This shift has made the Russian forces more effective in blunting Ukrainian counteroffensives. The military has also embraced technological advancements, especially in drone warfare, where Russia has closed the gap with Ukraine.

The ongoing conflict has also shifted the nature of recruitment. Unlike Ukraine, which has relied on conscription, Russia has increasingly relied on volunteers for its armed forces. High salaries and significant benefits have helped maintain troop morale and sustain Russia’s fighting force.

As both sides suffer significant losses, the prospects for renewed peace negotiations have increased. A potential agreement would need to satisfy both Russian demands, particularly regarding NATO’s influence in Ukraine, and ensure Ukrainian security. As the war continues to take its toll, any future peace talks will likely be shaped by the realities on the battlefield.

By Vafa Guliyeva