Modern Diplomacy: Armenia helps Russia circumvent Western sanctions

The Modern Diplomacy media platform, one of the leading sources of public opinion in Europe, published an article, which talks about the role of Armenia in helping Russia circumvent Western sanctions. Caliber.Az reprints the article.

Europe’s exports of weapons and “dual use” items to Russia have been banned since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This has ended the direct route for such exports to Russia that could be weaponised for its illegal invasion of Ukraine.

However, it is evident from European trade data that exports to countries such as Armenia have boomed since February 2022, showing that these are serving as a conduit to Russia and helping it to circumvent sanctions.

According to data analysis by UK television channel Sky News, European companies are exporting hundreds of millions of dollars of equipment and machinery that almost certainly end up in Russia, undermining the official sanctions regime and bolstering Vladimir Putin’s war machine.

The items – which include drone equipment, optical supplies and heavy machinery – are being sent to former Soviet satellite states such as Armenia and Georgia, from where these can be forwarded to Russia due to their favourable trade ties.

The European Union has a list of 45 categories of goods, called “common high priority items”, that have been found in battlefield remains of Russian weapons.

Trade numbers show that despite the sharp fall in the direct flow of goods to Russia itself following the imposition of trade sanctions after its invasion of Ukraine, large volumes of sensitive, “dual use” European goods are still finding their way to Russia.

Analysis by Sky News shows that British exports to some former Soviet republics of these goods, which have been documented as being used to kill Ukrainian citizens, have risen by over 500% since the outbreak of war.

British companies have exported $7.5 million worth of these goods to region, above what they historically tend to export to them.

These include “parts of aeroplanes, helicopters or unmanned aircraft”, which could be used to make drones and other aeronautic units.

Other items being sent by UK exporters include data processing machines, aeronautic navigation equipment and radio navigation aids.

Flows of British goods to Russia itself have fallen by 74% since the outbreak of war, following the imposition of sanctions. The vast majority of exports still flowing to Russia are food, medical products or other humanitarian items.

Direct exports of heavy machinery, electrical equipment and cars have dropped to nearly zero.

In sharp contrast, UK export volumes to Armenia have jumped, which has recorded a sharp increase in its onward goods exports to Russia. In 2022, the volume of trade between Armenia and Russia nearly doubled, reaching $5.3 billion, according to Armenia’s state statistics agency. This trend continued in 2023 and into the early months of 2024.

Similarly, Armenia’s exports to the UAE are up 2,200% since the invasion. According to Robin Brooks, Senior Fellow at The Brookings Institution, “Armenia’s trade statistics have gone nuts since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine… Has demand in the UAE for Armenian goods risen this much? Of course not. This is western goods, mostly from the EU, headed to Russia.”

According to the UN Comtrade Database, the list of products exported from Armenia to Russia in the last two years includes mobile phones, computers, headphones, and other technical equipment.

This is a Europe-wide problem, as other European countries, including France, Germany and Poland, are also sending large quantities of hardware to Russia via Armenia and Georgia.

“They’re clearly getting an order from somewhere that is a Russian satellite that happens to be domiciled in one of these Central Asian countries,” Robin Brooks, former chief economist of financial body the IIF, told Sky News.

“What happens then? Maybe there’s plausible deniability, maybe they know… all we know for sure is that the rise in export volumes that is happening is completely insane, and is inconsistent with any underlying data in these countries.

“So the only reasonable explanation is: Russia.

“From the Western European and especially the EU side, I would say, this has been going on for a while. It is at this point widely known in Brussels, and I think there is a key question as to why nothing is being done at a central EU level to stop this?” Brooks asked.

According to Sky News, “the scale and breadth of the trade is striking”.

This is compounded by direct arms sales to Armenia by European countries such as France. In October 2023, a deal was reportedly signed by the Armenian Defense Ministry and the French defence group Thales for the purchase of three cutting-edge GM-200 radar systems. The ceremony was attended by French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu and his Armenian counterpart Suren Papikian.

The delivery of GM200 radars would be significant as these can simultaneously identify and track warplanes, drones, and even rockets within a 250-kilometer radius.

A “letter of intent” on the prospective transfer of French short-range surface-to-air missiles to Armenia was also signed by the two ministers in October.

Later, it was revealed that France would also arm Armenia with 50 armoured personnel carriers. By December, the first 24 Bastion carriers ostensibly headed for Armenia were seen in the port of Poti, Georgia. Neither side has confirmed the Bastion delivery so far.

Both Lecornu and Papikian met again in Yerevan on February 23, with Lecornu’s airplane carrying night vision goggles for Armenia, which also signed a contract to buy assault rifles from French company PGM.

Lecornu emphasized that French arms deliveries to Armenia were “purely defensive”, though concerns have been raised that such weapons could eventually find their way to Russia.

Europe has much to do to ensure its sanctions against Russia remain water-tight and are not circumvented, whether for purely economic reasons or by ineffective monitoring.