NATO has been underestimating Russia’s war machine, Estonia says

Estonia’s top military commander said fresh intelligence on Russia’s ability to produce ammunition and recruit troops has prompted a re-evaluation among NATO allies and a spate of warnings to prepare for a long-term conflict.

Martin Herem, the commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, said predictions that Russian forces would reach the limits of their resources haven’t come true. President Vladimir Putin’s military has the capacity to produce several million artillery shells a year, far outstripping European efforts, and can recruit hundreds of thousands of new troops, he said, Bloomberg reports.

The general from Estonia, which shares a nearly 300-kilometer (186-mile) border with Russia, joins a growing number of North Atlantic Treaty Organization military chiefs who have warned over the past month that the alliance should prepare for a war footing with the Kremlin. Herem referenced an earlier estimate that Russia could produce a million artillery shells a year.

“A lot of people thought they couldn’t go beyond that — today, the facts tell us otherwise,” Herem said in an interview in Tallinn. “They can produce even more — many times more — ammunition.”

Almost two years since Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine, NATO leaders are bracing for a long conflict as Kyiv’s counteroffensive has fallen short of its objectives and troops are dug in along a 1,500-kilometer frontline stretching from the eastern Donbas region to the mouth of the Dnipro River in the south.

Estonian intelligence has predicted that Russia would need three to five years to rebuild its military machine enough to pose a direct threat to NATO. But the Baltic region’s proximity and increasingly bellicose rhetoric from Moscow have raised concerns about military readiness.

"Grim Predictions"

Belgium’s armed forces chief, Michel Hofman, said last month that Russia could open a “second front” in the Baltics or Moldova — a nation wedged between Ukraine and Romania — in a matter of years. Military commanders from Norway and Sweden, the latter on the cusp of joining NATO, also this month urged their governments to prepare for a potential conflict with Moscow.

Ammunition production has emerged as a key point where the 27-member EU has fallen short. The bloc told member states late last year that it’s very unlikely to meet a target of producing 1 million rounds of artillery by March. Russia meanwhile is bolstered by an influx of supplies from North Korea, which reportedly shipped 1 million shells to Russia last year.

The remarks by the Estonian military chief offer a gloomier outlook than that of the country’s prime minister, Kaja Kallas, who told Bloomberg this month that Ukraine still has a path to defeat Russia if allies contribute a chunk of their economic output to Kyiv.

“If we do things right, then there’s no point in those grim predictions,” Kallas said in a Jan. 16 interview.

While he doesn’t see Russia as a direct threat “today or tomorrow,” Herem said the risk for NATO could rise to a critical level once Russian resources are freed up from the campaign in Ukraine. It would be in position to engage in smaller-scale aggression, he said.

“One year is enough for them to do something horrible in our direction,” Herem said.